701
AXPQ20 PGUM 080629
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
429 PM ChST Fri May 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
At 1 PM ChST, the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit (05W) was
located near Latitude 8.6N, Longitude 139.5E, roughly 70 miles
west- northwest of Sorol, 100 miles south-southwest of Ulithi,
and 115 miles east-southeast of Yap. Hagupit has shown rapidly
warming cloud tops this afternoon, but this is likely a
regeneration cycle. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, and it has
picked up some speed, now moving west-northwest at 15 mph.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
110 miles to the north. Tropical Storm Hagupit is forecast to
slowly weaken this weaken as it turns more to the northwest.

farther east, Invest 95W has reformed near Pohnpei, or roughly
where Invest 94W was yesterday. This system is located near 5.6N
157.0E and also has an asymmetric look to it, despite much better
moisture, weak wind shear, and excellent divergence aloft. The
models continue to show this feature lifting west than northwest
towards the Marianas as it dissolves.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The NET enter`s Guam`s AOR AT 6N130E and extends east-northeast
into Tropical Storm Hagupit. Heavy showers and scattered
thunderstorms continue around the center of the storm, with
greater coverage across the eastern half of the storm as it has a
slightly asymmetric look. This is due to abundant dry air west to
north of the storm which is inhibiting this convection and further
strengthening. Additionally, the storm is in the right entrance
region of a shortwave trough passing by just northwest of the
system, with "fringe effects) of wind shear from that feature. The
NET looks to slowly weaken over the next few days.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A surface trough extends north-northeast from Invest 95W through
Pohnpei to 10N158E. This feature looks to continue moving west the
next few days as 95W dissolves, helping to pull deeper moisture
northwestward.

Another surface trough stretches north from near Makin to east of
Majuro, stretching from 3N173E to 7N173E. Scattered showers have
been prevalent along and east of this feature, and this should
continue the next few days as it heads west.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
A large train wind surge is centered between 7N and 15N from 140E
to 175E. This is due to a strong subtropical ridge to the north
and our tropical systems to the south. Here, sustained winds of 15
to 20 knots and seas of 9 to 12 feet are common. This feature will
slowly weaken over the next few days as the tropical systems
weaken, allowing the pressure gradient to relax.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ has dissolved with just trade-wind troughs apparent in
analyzed data.

$$

Doll