199
AGUS74 KWCO 131952
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
200 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026

...Flash and small stream flooding possible this weekend from portions of
the Central Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

.Central Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy rainfall, may elicit isolated
flash and small stream flooding Saturday - Sunday across the region. While
the overall QPF footprint has not changed much over the past 24 hours,
there are two distinct areas of rainfall totals of 2 - 3" ;southwestern MO
and much of AR. The entire region is generally on the dry side, which
should mitigate most hydrologic responses. However, the latest guidance
from the hi-res models suggest some potential for localized training within
these clusters of storms, which may locally overwhelm current capacity and
generate flash flooding, especially over hilly/steep terrain of the Ozarks
and in more urban areas. The NWM continues to highlight the potential for
small stream flooding across portions of AR and western TN Saturday and
Sunday, although the magnitude and coverage of the responses have dampened
in comparison to earlier in the week. As such, the Limited impacts area
across this region will be maintained given little to no change in the
current guidance.

.California...
The NWM continues to highlight the potential for at least isolated small
stream responses along portions of the central and southern CA coastal
ranges and the Sierra Nevada foothills Sunday - Wednesday as periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall impact the region. While streamflows are
elevated, the progressive nature of this activity, coupled with decreasing
snow levels throughout the event, should mitigate most hydrologic
responses. However, given each successive day of rainfall, isolated flash and urban
flooding, particularly near the Transverse Ranges cannot be ruled out as
soils become more saturated. Annual exceedance probabilities, per the High
Flow Magnitude Forecast are generally between 20 - 50%, which suggest some
out-of-bank rises on small streams are possible. This area will continue to
be monitored over the next day or so for possible inclusion in the Flood
Hazard Outlook.

//JDP

Additional National Water Center products are available at
www.weather.gov/owp/operations





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