927
FXUS63 KTOP 110541
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1241 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trend warmer the rest of this week, looking to be
well above average by the end of the week.

- Small rain chances Tuesday late afternoon and evening, then again
later this week although confidence is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Shortwave trough aloft is pushing south early this afternoon with
sfc high pressure working into the area behind it. Cloud cover will
keep temperatures a few degrees cooler south of I-70 compared to
those locations north, as skies clear gradually north to south this
afternoon. This sets up good radiational cooling tonight with
temperatures falling back to the 40s by early Monday morning. From
there, expect plenty of sunshine and low-level southerly flow to
bring highs back to around 80 degrees Monday afternoon.

A 500mb ridge amplifies across the western US during the first half
of the week, contributing to further warming Tuesday with an 850mb
thermal ridge overhead. We still keep northwest flow aloft as a
shortwave dives southeast across the Great Lakes region, and drags a
sfc front across our area. The best upper-level forcing should be
east of the area, but there could be just enough convergence along
the front to develop showers and thunderstorms during the late
afternoon to early evening hours, mainly in east central KS
southeast of the Turnpike. If the cap erodes in time and storms are
able to form along the front during this time frame, there looks to
be enough instability and deep-layer shear to support a few severe
storms with hail and wind as the main hazards.

Sfc high pressure then takes control Wednesday with the upper ridge
moving overhead Thursday. Uncertainty in the forecast grows through
the second half of the week, mainly tied to the evolution of a
shortwave that is progged to move from the Pacific coast across the
northern or central US. Ensemble cluster analysis shows this feature
as either an open wave or a closed low off the Pacific coast as of
00Z Thursday. There are varying ideas between models on how strong
this system will be as it propagates east, and whether it will ride
the ridge or flatten it. This will have some implication on our
precipitation chances later this week, and given the lower
confidence, PoPs are low as well. There seems to still be enough
influence from the ridge aloft to have higher confidence in above
average temperatures late this week as highs look to reach the 90s.
However, it should be noted that the NBM is on the warm side of all
the model guidance, and if clouds/rain come to fruition, that would
likely result in cooler temperatures than forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will be
under 12 KTS through the period.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Record High Temperature for May 15

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           95 (1944)               92
Concordia        91 (1944, 2012)         92


Record Highest Low Temperature for May 15

                 Record (Year)
Topeka           71 (1977)
Concordia        69 (1962)


Record High Temperature for May 16

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           95 (1931)               90
Concordia        93 (2019)               90


Record Highest Low Temperature for May 16

                 Record (Year)
Topeka           73 (1911)
Concordia        69 (1894)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Gargan
CLIMATE...Drake