005
FXUS62 KTBW 110439
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1239 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late night/early morning patchy fog and low clouds will be possible
  the next few days.

- Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic
  normal.

- Afternoon and evening storm chances today for the nature coast
  and interior before area wide chances with a frontal boundary
  Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026
A stationary boundary persists across north Florida with onshore
boundary layer flow over west central and southwest Florida. West
coast sea breeze will push inland this afternoon with scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing...with areal coverage
increasing as the storms push east through afternoon/evening
hours. Although considerable high cloudiness will hold over much
of the forecast area today, temperatures across the interior will
remain rather hot with highs in the lower/mid 90s. There is a
marginal risk for severe storms today across the nature coast and
interior, but the main threat should be just to the north and east
of the forecast area.

An U/L disturbance will ride over the stationary boundary Monday
night and Tuesday with the front beginning to sag south over the
forecast area. Highest pops across the north in proximity to the
front...and over the interior due to the onshore boundary layer
flow.

Sufficient deep layer moisture may lag over the area on Wednesday
for scattered storms to develop over the interior during the
afternoon hours. Drier air will advect over the area Wednesday
night and Thursday with predominately dry conditions through the
end of the week and over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with VFR CIGs
250 the remainder of the night...and SCT LCL BKN 040-050
developing Monday afternoon. Isold showers/storms Monday afternoon
will produce LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs, with the best chance of
storms vcnty LAL/PGD/RSW/FMY.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026
Relatively weak gradient will persist over the waters through the
period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be isolated to
scattered thunderstorms which will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. Best chance of storms
will be Monday night and Tuesday with the highest POPs over the
northern and central waters, with a few strong storms possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient low level
moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above critical
levels through mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  75  89  73 /  10  10  60  10
FMY  93  75  93  73 /  20  10  50  20
GIF  91  73  90  71 /  30  10  70  30
SRQ  89  74  90  71 /  10   0  30  10
BKV  90  69  91  65 /  10  10  60  10
SPG  90  77  91  74 /  10  10  40  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby