285
FXUS62 KTBW 110415
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1215 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- The wet pattern will continue through the weekend and into early
  next week, with numerous thunderstorms developing each day.
  Gusty winds and localized flooding will be possible with the
  strongest storms.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist each day.
  Highs in the lower 90s will feel more like 100 to 105 due to the
  humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Weak surface high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula
for the next several days with light southeast boundary layer
flow, which will become onshore near the coast each afternoon.
The west coast sea breeze boundary will hold over the coastal
counties each day, and will be the focus for enhanced convection
during the mid/late afternoon and early evening hours. Generally,
thunderstorm activity will develop over southwest Florida by mid
afternoon and build up the west coast sea breeze boundary through
the remainder of the day. A few storms may be strong with wind
gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.

Deep tropical moisture will persist over the forecast area with
PCPW values over 2 inches, which will continue the risk for
locally heavy rain and flooding of urban/flood prone areas. The
additional rainfall will also increase the risk for river flooding
across portions of the region, mainly from the Tampa Bay area and
south. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above
climatic normals through the period.

Some drier air aloft may advect over the region by the middle of
next week which could decrease areal coverage of afternoon storms
and the risk for heavy rainfall. At this point, NBM POPs appear
too high...although overall confidence in the extended forecast
is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
VFR CIGs AOA 120 will persist for the next several hours,
becoming partly cloudy late which will persist into Friday morning.
Increasing cloudiness on Friday with SCT LCL BKN 025-035
developing vcnty all terminals during the late morning/early
afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop during the mid/late afternoon and may impact all terminals
for a few hours with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through the period
with winds below cautionary levels each day. The main hazard will
be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the overnight and early morning hours, which may cause locally
gusty winds and rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
No fire weather hazards are expected as abundant moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above
critical levels for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  78  91  78 /  50  20  70  30
FMY  93  77  92  77 /  70  30  70  20
GIF  93  76  93  75 /  60  30  70  10
SRQ  91  77  92  76 /  40  20  70  30
BKV  92  74  93  74 /  60  30  70  30
SPG  90  78  90  79 /  50  20  70  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley