479
FXUS62 KTAE 161914
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
314 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

- There is a medium to high chance of locations reaching 90
  degrees or above this weekend into mid week next week. The
  Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia have the highest chances.
  The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without
  cooling/hydration.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected into next week
  with the better chances towards the end of the week. Afternoon
  storms each day could produce gusty winds and locally heavy
  rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Friday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Warm and relatively dry conditions are expected to start out the
forecast period with southeasterly to southerly winds returning to
the area. The Bermuda High remains centered off the Atlantic coast
through the next week, keeping a steady stream of increasing
moisture over the region. This will cause nightly low temperatures
to rise into the upper 60s to low 70s by early next week. Ridging
begins to slide over the region over the weekend into next week,
allowing high temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s
area-wide. The ridging is forecast to be the strongest Monday
through Wednesday next week, so highs are most likely to reach 90+
on those afternoons.

A fairly summer-like setup is expected for rain chances with PoPs
beginning to increase as moisture increases late in the weekend
and into next week. Convection is first expected along the
seabreezes: both along the Gulf coast in the afternoons and also
across the I-75 corridor in the evening from the Atlantic
seabreeze. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but
afternoon storms could produce some gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours with light southerly
to southeasterly winds. However, some gusts near 20 kt are
possible at ECP this afternoon with the sea breeze. Additionally,
some low stratus may develop late tonight and early Sunday morning
near ECP, TLH, and VLD where IFR/MVFR cigs are possible. TEMPO
groups have been added to this TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue into next
week as high pressure remains situated off the east coast. A
slight uptick in winds will occur in the overnight hours each
night as easterly surges work offshore but should remain below
cautionary thresholds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

A warming and moistening trend is expected into next week with south
to southeasterly flow over the area thanks to high pressure off the
Carolina coast. Min RHs will continue to improve to the mid 40 to
mid 50% Sunday. High mixing heights and breezy transport winds will
likely lead to high dispersions each day through Monday. Generally
dry today with increasing rain chances Sunday along the I-75
corridor. The Gulf Coast seabreeze will also generate isolated
showers and thunderstorms beginning next week favoring the eastern
Florida panhandle. Very high mixing heights will lead to high
dispersions over much of the area over the next few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Rainfall chances have trended slightly higher over the next week
though rainfall amounts are expected to be light with no flooding
anticipated.

Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area as long-
term rainfall deficits and low streamflows continue. For more
information on local drought impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  90  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
Panama City   68  85  70  87 /  10   0   0  20
Dothan        64  89  66  89 /   0  10   0  30
Albany        68  90  67  90 /   0  40  20  10
Valdosta      69  92  67  92 /  10  60  20   0
Cross City    69  93  67  95 /  10  50  10  10
Apalachicola  71  83  73  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Scholl