126
FXUS64 KSJT 161842
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
142 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through into early next week.

- Medium to High (30-70%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
  from Tuesday evening through Thursday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Fairly typical May afternoon across West Central Texas, with
temperatures climbing into the 80s and 90s and surface dewpoints
in the 60s. This leads to CAPE values in the 3000+ range, but with
700 mb temperatures around 13C, cap is healthy. Dryline is
becoming better established across the Permian Basin and South
Plans and will make more eastward progress towards West Central
Texas late this afternoon. There will be some convergence along
the dryline and this may be just enough to break through the cap,
but its going to be tough. Most likely area to see the cap break
will be across the Trans Pecos where upslope flow will provide
some additional aid, but these storms usually struggle to cross
the Pecos into West Central Texas. The other location to watch
will be just northwest of the Big Country where dryline
convergence will be maximized in an area with slightly cooler mid
level temperatures and thus a weaker cap. Will add an isolated
mention of storms to a small portion of Haskell and Fisher
Counties, mainly northwest of a Haskell to Stamford to Roby line
for a brief few hours this evening.

More of the same for tomorrow as well. Morning low clouds will be
fairly extensive but will break up and burn off during the
morning hours. Warm again, especially near the dryline where
temperatures will climb to near the 100 degree mark. Again, plenty
of instability but cap will will make convective initiation very
difficult with mid level temperatures perhaps a little warmer. May
see a few warm advection showers try to fly cross the Hill
Country Sunday morning but these not likely to amount to very
much. Will monitor but will not add POPs for this small chance at
this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Sunday night into Monday, we will be under southwest flow aloft,
with southerly flow from the surface through the mid/upper levels.
This will keep temperatures hot through at least Monday, with
highs from around 90 degrees east of a Clyde to Junction line, up
into the upper 90s to around 102 degrees west of that line, with
the hottest temperatures expected in Sterling, Nolan, and Fisher
counties. Late Monday afternoon into the evening hours, with the
dryline sharpening up, and shortwave energy embedded in the
southwesterly flow, we will have a low (20%-30%) chance for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas mainly
north of I-10 Monday afternoon into the overnight hours.

Monday night into Tuesday, the pattern begins shifting, as a
shortwave from the large trough over the western U. S. ejects into
the northern and central plains, sending a cold front into Texas.
As additional shortwave energy rounds the base of the western
trough and moves out over the southern plains, and combines with
the surface frontal boundary, we will see an increase in
precipitation chances through the mid to late portions of next
week, and the highest chances of rainfall at this time from late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Medium range models are having
trouble with the behavior of the front this far out, but should
showers and thunderstorms accompany the front, it`s likely that it
will slowly work its way through out area, as opposed to stalling
somewhere within the CWA. Either way, this would be a favorable
pattern (60%+ rain chances) for precipitation to continue into the
second half of next week as the two main medium range models
continue to show at least weak upper level troughing over Texas
through next Saturday. Since it is May, we will need to monitor
this event as we approach for the potential for severe storms.
Whether or not the cold front makes it all the way through the
area, we should see temperatures cool back off closer to normal,
with highs mainly in the 80s (possibly even 70s) from Wednesday
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Morning MVFR stratus slowly eroding across the central and
southern terminals early this afternoon, and expect most area to
become VFR by mid afternoon. A return of the low clouds is likely
late tonight into Sunday morning across all terminal locations.
Otherwise, the gusty south winds will be the main weather story,
with winds gusting over 20kts at all locations at times through
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  90  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  70  92  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    69  89  72  91 /   0  10   0   0
Brownwood   69  87  72  89 /   0  10  10  20
Sweetwater  71  95  73 100 /   0   0  10  10
Ozona       69  91  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       69  86  72  89 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07