285
FXUS63 KSGF 161850
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
150 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the
  60s to around 70 through the weekend. Occasional wind gusts of
  20-35mph this afternoon and again Sunday.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with
  damaging winds the most likely hazard. A few separate rounds
  of storms are possible each day.

- Additional rainfall chances (20-30%) mid to late week along
  with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a broad west/southwest flow aloft over the
central/southern US. Several shortwave/ripples in the flow were
moving through the area. These shortwaves, along with a low
level jet and plentiful moisture (PW value of 1.25in on the 12z
KSGF sounding) aided in the development of scattered showers and
storms earlier this morning. Temps early this afternoon were
warming up into the 70s and 80s as clouds slowly begin to erode.
At the surface, low pressure was developing across the lee of
the Rockies with a front stretched northeast through Kansas into
Iowa. We were in the warm sector with surface dewpoints in the
middle to upper 60s.

Mostly Dry Conditions Tonight and Sunday: A slight mid level
ridge/subsidence looks to slide into the area for the afternoon
and evening hours. This will likely push rain showers out of the
eastern counties with mostly dry conditions expected. A strong
low level jet (50-60kts) looks to develop overnight across
Kansas and Oklahoma and nose into northwest Missouri, impinging
on the frontal boundary/instability gradient. Thunderstorms look
to erupt up in that region. There are only a couple of CAMS that
bring any of that activity close to Morgan county. Most of the
guidance keeps all of that activity north of the area (I-70
corridor and north). We will monitor for any changes in these
expectations but for now a mostly dry night is expected. A
strong upper level shortwave trough will take shape across the
western US Sunday with strengthening low pressure across
southwest Kansas. The lack of forcing over the area should keep
the area mainly precip free for Sunday. Thunderstorms do look to
erupt across Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa Sunday evening however
there has been a consistent signal that this activity weakens as
it moves east and currently rain/storm chances late Sunday night
remain less than 30 percent.

Warm and Breezy through Sunday: Residual clouds this afternoon
will slowly clear from west to east with highs in the low to
middle 80s likely. On Sunday, gusty south winds up to 35 mph are
likely as the pressure gradient strengthens. Forecast soundings
and HREF data suggest a cumulus field should develop over the
area with daytime heating however highs should still be able to
reach the middle to potentially upper 80s. See climate section
below for details.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Severe Potential Monday and Monday Night: The strong shortwave
trough will begin to take on a negative tilt as it moves into
the Rockies and Central Plains. This is well west of the area
however we are noticing some subtle shortwave energy that may
move up the flow from the southwest from Texas into Oklahoma
and western Arkansas during the day Monday. A 40-50kt low level
jet will also be overspreading the area during the day.
Therefore, while the stronger lift and front will be well west
of the area, we are seeing signals of some potential for
isolated/scattered thunderstorms that could develop over the
area during the afternoon. 12z REFS guidance suggests mean SB
CAPE around 2000-3000k/kg however wind shear looks to generally
be less than 30kts during the afternoon. A sneaky afternoon
strong to severe thunderstorm set up could occur if the lift
does arrive and cause storms to initiate/break any capping
inversion.

The more likely/higher confidence scenario is that an organized
line of thunderstorms develops during the evening and overnight
hours across Nebraska and Kansas, closer to the stronger
lift/shear. This line of storms could then arrive after
midnight, into the early morning hours Tuesday. Damaging winds
are the most likely hazard with this however will need to watch
line segments/orientation for any tornado potential.

Severe/Flood Potential Tuesday: The early morning line of storms
could create a messy/complicated setup for another round of
storms as the front moves through the area during the day. Given
the rather uniform wind profile aloft, it will likely take some
time for the front to move through the area. Therefore if
clouds can decrease and allow for sufficient destabilization,
then severe thunderstorm development could occur during the
afternoon and evening hours. One potential limiting factor to
severe storms Tuesday is that the stronger lift could shift more
north into the northern plains. If the lift remains farther
south then that would allow a higher potential/coverage of
severe storms. The flooding potential remains marginal given the
relatively dry antecedent conditions of late along with lower
stream flows. Confidence remains low in the overall severe
potential for Tuesday.

Additional Rain Chances Mid/Late Week: Latest ensemble data
suggests that the overall upper level pattern does not change
much as the area remains in the west/southwest upper level flow
pattern. The front that moves through Tuesday will likely lift
back into the area and will serve as a focus for additional
chances for showers and storms. While chances are currently only
20-30 percent, these could increase in future updates. The
additional precip chances do look to suppress temps back down
into the 70s for highs versus the 80s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. There is a low chance for showers through early
afternoon, mainly at SGF. Clouds will begin to decrease late in
the day however high clouds will spread over the area at times.
Surface winds will remain out of the south with increasing gusts
around 20kts this afternoon and again Sunday morning. Low level
wind shear is likely at the sites overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 16:
KJLN: 89/2001

May 17:
KSGF: 88/2001
KJLN: 89/2001
KVIH: 92/1996
KUNO: 89/1980

May 18:
KSGF: 88/1962
KJLN: 90/1987
KVIH: 88/1996
KUNO: 89/2001


Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 16:
KSGF: 69/2015
KJLN: 73/1974
KUNO: 67/2015
KVIH: 70/1899

May 17:
KSGF: 69/1974
KJLN: 75/1974
KUNO: 68/2017
KVIH: 68/2017

May 18:
KSGF: 68/1996
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 66/2017
KVIH: 70/1996

May 19:
KSGF: 69/2013
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 70/1996
KVIH: 70/1996

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield