Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
918 FXUS61 KRNK 161745 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 145 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures on Friday and Saturday have trended lower. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Near record heat early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2: Some afternoon shower chances Sunday through Tuesday for the mountains. Widespread rain showers with some storms Wednesday into Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 3: Cooler temperatures with continued rain chances late next week into Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Near record heat early next week. A 500mb ridge will build over the southeast US, and heights increase over the region. Surface high pressure will move east, and flow will become more south to southwest, bringing in warmer and more moist air. Thus, a warming trend will ensue, and afternoon high temperatures will be a few degrees higher each day. By the start of the work week, afternoon highs will be in the 80s in the west, and 90s in the Piedmont. See the Climate Section below for the daily records at our climate sites during this unseasonably warm stretch. KEY MESSAGE 2: Some afternoon shower chances Sunday through Tuesday for the mountains. Widespread rain showers with some storms Wednesday into Thursday. With the greater moisture and warmer temperatures in the region, there are daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the end of the weekend and first half of the work week. These will be mostly terrain based, since there is not a strong synoptic feature to drive more organized convection. However, by Wednesday, a cold front will move into the central Appalachians from the Midwest. Increased shear ahead of and along the front, combined with the ongoing heat and humidity, will lead to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon. Some of the storms could become strong to severe, but confidence in severe thunderstorms is low at this time, since the better upper level dynamics will track farther north of the area. Rain showers look to linger into Thursday morning as the front moves to the southeast. KEY MESSAGE 3: Cooler temperatures with continued rain chances late next week into Memorial Day weekend. The front slows down across the southeast by the end of next week, while a surface high builds across New England, and could wedge against the eastern side of the mountains. Moisture around the front and northeasterly flow will keep rain chances and clouds in the forecast heading into Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures will drop by about 10 to 15 degrees areawide by Thursday, and then another few degrees by Friday. Current forecast has highs in the 70s by the end of the week, but it is worth noting that the NBM has a 10 degree spread in high temperatures from the 25th to 75th percentiles, so confidence in temperatures late next week is low. That being said, in wedge patterns, temperatures typically tend towards the lower end of guidance, so would not be surprised to see temperatures unable to escape the 60s Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the weekend. Mostly sunny today, with some passing mid to high clouds. Cloud cover will increase somewhat later today, but ceilings will remain VFR, then clearing after 06Z Sunday. There are low chances for isolated to scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms north of Interstate 64 as a system moves eastward through the OH Valley, and so would more likely impact KLWB than the other area terminals. However, there is some uncertainty in how far east the showers and storms will hold together, and so given the low probabilities, have opted to leave out of the TAF at this time. Could also see some patchy fog for KLWB and KBLF with increasing moisture in the region for a few hours Sunday morning. Southwest to westerly winds today, 10 knots or lower, could see the occasional gust closer to 20 knots. Winds decrease for tonight, then pick up again Sunday afternoon, but again less than 10 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the beginning of next week. Chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms across the mountains increase Sunday afternoon and continue through Tuesday. More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Thunderstorm probabilities wane during the nighttime hours, but rain could continue into Thursday morning. Rain chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Monday, May 18, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 94 in 1962 69 in 1996 92 Lynchburg 93 in 1911 68 in 1894 92 Danville 93 in 1974 69 in 2015 93 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 2015 86 Blacksburg 88 in 1911 61 in 2018 88 Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 94 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 92 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 94 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 89 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS AVIATION...AS CLIMATE...RCS