771
FXUS62 KRAH 102323
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
720 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* None at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

1) A frontal system will bring a chance for rain across the area
Monday.

2) A cold front will bring a decent chance of showers and isolated
storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall amounts and impacts
should be low. Temperatures will turn from near to slightly below
normal for the workweek to above normal over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A frontal system will bring a chance for rain
across the area Monday.

Latest sfc analysis this afternoon depicted the upstream cold front
over the southern OH Valley. Here locally, subsidence has promoted
mostly sunny skies with light sfc flow.  Temperatures today should
rise into the mid 80s under dry weather.   As we pivot to this
evening and tonight, weak forcing along the advancing front will
trigger some upstream convection over north-central VA. As the front
surges south into our area overnight, this forcing will weaken
substantially and as such not expecting rain to accompany the
frontal advance across central NC tonight.  The front should largely
clear to the NC/SC border by early to mid Monday morning.  Flow
behind the front will turn nely, and some gustiness up to 20 to 25
mph will be possible.

Latest guidance seems more in line with keeping any diurnal
instability largely confined to the coastal areas Monday afternoon.
As such, think the storm chances in our far southeast are fairly
limited.  Elsewhere, a weakly sheared vorticity lobe will pivot
across the southern Appalachians and generate light rain Monday
afternoon. Amounts should range from Trace to maybe a tenth or so up
in the Triad area.  Any linger rain will shift east of our area
through early Tuesday night.

Despite the frontal passage, our dew points don`t overly crash. As
such, there is a good signal for potentially dense fog near sunrise
Tuesday morning. The northern and western Piedmont may be favored
given the QPF appears potentially higher up there.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will bring a decent chance of showers
and isolated storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall
amounts and impacts should be low. Temperatures will turn from near
to slightly below normal for the workweek to above normal over the
weekend.

A weak cold front will cross central NC on Wednesday night. A weak
surface wave will develop along it and move NE through the southern
Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile a mid/upper trough with moderate 500 mb
height falls of 40-60 m in 24 hours will traverse the region. This
is likely to bring some showers to central NC on Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night. QPF in the models has increased slightly, with
a quarter to half inch on average in the ensemble means, highest
east. Still, instability and moisture look limited, so this will put
little dent in the drought, and impacts should overall be minimal.
High pressure will bring dry weather for the remainder of the period.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal from Tuesday
through Friday. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, with highs in
the lower-to-mid-70s and lows in the upper-40s to mid-50s. Highs
will be in the upper-70s to lower-80s on Wednesday, before turning
about a category cooler on Thursday and Friday behind the weak
front. Warm weather will return over the weekend as the surface high
moves east into the western Atlantic. Forecast highs are in the mid-
to-upper-80s on Saturday and upper-80s to lower-90s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...

TAF period: The majority of the next 24 hours should be VFR, except
restrictions should eventually arrive at INT/GSO. A cold front will
move through the region tonight, but the wind should be light and
variable with the passage of the cold front. However, late tonight,
the wind should begin to pick up out of the northeast, with gusts
actually developing by dawn. Models have been trending downward with
the coverage of precipitation, but went ahead and added a tempo
group for precipitation around noon tomorrow at INT/GSO where
confidence in precipitation is the highest. There will be a chance
of showers at other locations, but not high enough to warrant a
mention in the TAFs at this time. By early/mid afternoon, lower
ceilings should arrive at INT/GSO. It appears as if restrictions
will hold off until 00Z Tuesday at other sites. However, if the
moist air arrives more quickly, cannot rule out IFR ceilings at
INT/GSO and MVFR ceilings at RDU/RWI between 18Z Monday and 00Z
Tuesday. Wind gusts should also decrease Monday afternoon, but a
sustained wind will remain out of the northeast.

Outlook: Minimal drying in the low-lvls behind the front may support
patchy to areas of dense fog Tues morning where clearing skies and
relatively calm winds can occur; greatest chances appear to be over
the NC Piedmont (INT/GSO/RDU). Additional flight restrictions and
rain are expected with the passage of another frontal system Wed
into Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Danco
AVIATION...Green/AS