994
FXUS63 KPAH 110404
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1104 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a couple of low-end rain chances tonight: 1) A
  10-20% this evening along the Missouri-Arkansas border and 2)
  A 20-40% chance between midnight and 7 AM in the southern
  Kentucky Purchase and Pennyrile.

- Another chance (20-40%) of showers and a few thunderstorms is
  forecast late Tuesday night in northern parts of southeast
  Missouri and southern Illinois, as well as the Evansville
  Tri-State and northwest Kentucky.

- After being fairly close to normal values through Thursday,
  temperature will trend 5-10 degrees above normal Friday into
  next weekend, along with a return of small (10-20%) pop-up
  shower or thunderstorm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A surface cold front has settled just south of the area as part
of a broader H5 ridge-trough axis across the CONUS from west to
east. A weak surface inflection will initiate isolated to
widely scattered showers near the AR/MO and KY/TN borders this
evening and through the overnight hours. It appears there could
be two potential periods of rain. The first would be this
evening near the AR/MO border where a small chance (10-20%) of
rain is forecast. The second round will be a bit more robust in
coverage (20-40% chance) over the southern KY Purchase and
Pennyrile areas. Any rain should be out of the region by
daybreak Monday. Additionally rainfall amounts will be very
light for those that do see it, generally a tench of an inch or
less.

High pressure across the Mid-South will bring seasonably mild
and dry conditions the rest of Monday into Tuesday, but another
cold front will pass through the region late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning, bringing another chance of both showers
and thunderstorms. This front will be lacking good forcing and
moisture, so storm chances will be confined to the northern
have of the region (20-40% chance here) before losing all
forcing, while locations further south will likely stay dry.
Rainfall amounts will again be very light even if it does occur,
generally a tenth of an inch or less.

Following the passage of the cold front on Wednesday, very dry
and breezy conditions are expected, with RH values as low as
20-25% and NW winds of 10-15 mph. This could lead to elevated
fire weather conditions depending on how dry the vegetation
becomes during the next few days. Low humidity values but less
breezy conditions are also expected Thursday and Friday.

From Friday into next weekend, the H5 ridging over the western
CONUS will begin to shift eastward towards the area. However,
model guidance has shown the ridging becoming flattened/zonal by
next weekend. NAEFS guidance still shows temperatures at 850mb
warming to the 90th percentile, which will result in a warming
trend regardless. Weekend high temperatures will rise into the
middle 80s and possibly lower 90s. Humidity values will begin to
creep upward as well, with dew point temperatures forecast to
reach the lower to middle 60s. This may allow isolated (10-20%
chance) air mass showers or thunderstorms to develop during the
heat of the day, but no widespread drought- busting rains are
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Some light rain, primarily impacting southern terminals, will
gradually shift southeast as head into the overnight. Mid cloud
will clear from northwest to southeast through early morning.
Mainly clear skies expected on Monday, aside from SCT cu
development which is primarily expected at northern terminals in
the afternoon. Light northerly winds will be in place,
generally no stronger than 7 kts on Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...SP