966
FXUS64 KOUN 110356
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1053 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- A few strong to severe storms possible along/south of the Red
  River this afternoon.

- Hot, well-above average temperatures are expected for middle to
  late week across the area.

- Next chance for showers and storms arrives next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms and embedded thunderstorms continue across
much of the area well to the north of a front that has pushed into
north TX as of early afternoon. Elevated instability to the north of
the boundary is fairly limited across central OK, but remains in the
1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the Red River. As a subtle
shortwave moves eastward out of NM this will likely reinvigorate
convection across southwest OK into western north TX through the
remainder of the afternoon. Large hail up to golf ball size will be
the main risk with these storms as they will be elevated well north
of the frontal boundary, but can`t rule out a strong wind gust or
two.

Thunderstorm activity will shift southward by early evening, with
lingering showers expected to exit the area by midnight tonight.
Could see some patchy fog development tonight as winds go light and
clouds clear given wet ground conditions, but at this time do not
expect widespread dense fog. Temperatures will cool into the 40s
across northern OK where clouds will clear earlier, with 50s for
lows across the remainder of the area.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Drier air will continue to filter into the area on Monday with
temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 70s with plenty of
sun expected. Winds will be relatively light but will veer through
the day, becoming south/southeast during the afternoon. Warming mid
level temperatures and strengthening southerly/southwesterly low-
level flow will bring much warmer conditions on Tuesday, especially
across western OK and western north TX where highs are expected to
reach into the low to mid 90s Tuesday afternoon. Low end elevated
fire weather is possible across far western/northwestern OK Tuesday
afternoon, but recent rainfall will hopefully help to mitigate
this risk. A cold front will work southward into northern OK late
in the day Tuesday, but with warm mid level temperatures and only
modest moisture return ahead of the boundary, the current
expectation is that the cap will be too strong to overcome in our
area (better chances of that happening to our north).

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Upper ridge will remain in control through Thursday before a couple
of upper shortwaves break it down. In advance of the initial wave,
lee troughing will result in increasing south winds Wednesday night
and Thursday. The gusty south winds will combine with hot
temperatures and low afternoon humidity to result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma
Thursday afternoon.

The strong, gusty south winds will continue both Friday into
Saturday with only minimal rain chances and hot afternoon
temperatures. Fire weather conditions will also remain elevated
across far western and northwestern Oklahoma where vegetation
remains in a transition phase due to lack of precipitation. A
stronger longwave trough moves through the central part of the
country by Saturday dragging a cold front into the area, which may
bring temperatures down at least a few degrees and also bring a
chance of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

IFR conditions are forecast for KDUA early Monday morning, and
then lifting to VFR by mid-morning. Otherwise, light north winds
become variable at times. Patchy fog is possible towards early
morning near KWWR and KCSM but minimal reductions to visibility
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  50  77  55 /  90  20   0   0
Hobart OK         72  49  80  55 /  80  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  80  54  81  56 /  70  30   0   0
Gage OK           68  41  79  54 /  90   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  46  78  53 /  50   0   0   0
Durant OK         77  58  78  56 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01