529
FXUS61 KOKX 161845
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
245 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summer-like warmth continues this weekend into Wednesday.

2) An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the the area late Wednesday. More seasonable weather to follow
behind the cold front for the end of the week.

3) Cold water safety concerns continue this weekend with good
boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

A nearly zonal flow aloft today will be followed by significant
height rises along the eastern seaboard Sunday through Tuesday.
By Monday night, 500mb height anomalies will be on the order of
2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. What this all means is
much warmer weather this weekend, but the hottest days are forecast
to be Tuesday and Wednesday. For these days, temperatures will
be about 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Highs will get into the
upper 80s to as high as 95 away from the immediate coast. The
warmest readings will be north and west of NYC and interior
southern CT. Gusty SW-S winds both of these days will bring in
cooler maritime air in along the coast, especially across the
south shore of LI.

Highs Sunday will be in the 80s and possibly 90 Sunday for the
warmest spots. Even coastal areas are anticipated to be into the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Monday poses a bit of an anomaly during this period, as a backdoor
cold front passing through the area Sunday night will lead to more
of a marine influence with SE winds. Many locations will see highs
fall off 5 to 10 degrees with the possible exception being locations
well north and west of NYC. A passing shortwave trough and strengthening
confluent flow across eastern Canada and into the Northeast Sunday
night look to be just enough to get the front as far NE NJ and
eastern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. The front quickly
returns to the north as a warm front Monday night. The S/SW flow
in the warm sector Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the hottest
days as previously mentioned. Heat index values could approach
95 in spots away from the coast.

NBM high temperatures were blended with the NBM 10th percentile and
the CONSAll to knock down highs some based on a noted warm bias
early in the warm season.

Expect mainly dry conditions with an isolated shower and/or sprinkle
tonight with the passage of shortwave trough. There could also be an
isolated late day thunderstorm north and west of NYC Monday and
Tuesday afternoon/evening.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A positively tilted upper trough builds in from the NW mid to late
week sending a cold front across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. The boundary looks to be active with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. More seasonable temperatures are forecast
for the end of the week. NBM does maintain a slight chance of showers
as there are some differences in the progression of the system.
More recent model guidance suggests that the the cold front pushes
far enough south to allow for a slightly warmer and drier Thursday
than previous runs.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water
temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures
can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone
suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats,
canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure continues to move out into the Atlantic through
the TAF period. A weak disturbance passes through tonight.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. With the
disturbance tonight moving through, a brief very light shower will
be possible. Have only included VCSH for some TAF sites to the
north of NYC terminals. Also not much reduction in visibility
is expected with the showers if they were to occur.

Winds will be mainly from the S-SW near 10-15 kt with gusts
to near 20 kt initially. Winds further increase later this
afternoon into early evening with S-SW winds near 15-20 kt with
gusts in the 25-30 kt range. Gusts subside this evening with
S-SW winds going to back to near 10 kt. Wind speeds then do not
change much heading into Sunday but wind direction will become
more westerly.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gust to 30-35 kt possible late this afternoon.

Timing of gusts could be 1-2 hours off from TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: VFR. W/SW winds 10-15g20kt, giving way to late
afternoon seabreeze for south coastal terminals.

Monday: VFR. SE winds 10-15g20kt afternoon into early eve.

Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Isolated
thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north
of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible.

Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with
potential showers and thunderstorms. Showers likely afternoon
into eve with a chance of thunderstorms. S/SW winds
10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.
NW windshift in the evening.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA is in effect for the ocean, south shore bays, and NY
Harbor this afternoon.

A strengthening southerly flow today will bring a return to SCA
conditions on the ocean this afternoon/early evening, as well
as Lower NY Harbor and south shore bays of W LI. Occasional 25
kt are also a possibility this evening across the eastern bays
and eastern sound, but this looks to be for a real short
period. Winds will gradually subside the second half of Saturday
night into Sunday. However, ocean seas could linger around 5 ft
for much of Sunday with residual S swell.

There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water
temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures
can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone
suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats,
canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat.

Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated Sunday night through Monday night
as flow temporarily weakens under high pressure. SCA conditions
likely redevelop on the ocean water Tue into Tue night with
strengthening SW flow, potentially for all waters by Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW/MW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DW/MW