682
FXUS64 KOHX 110526
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Medium chances for light showers tonight into tomorrow morning.
  Rainfall amounts less than one tenth of an inch for most
  locations.

- Highs in the 70s to lower 80s most of the week, but lower 90s
  possible for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A quick look at satellite and mid-state observations this evening
shows the front associated with our current weather maker is almost
completely out of the area. Then you flip over to radar and realize
the rain has only made it to a few spots in west Middle TN so far.
So it looks like light to occasionally moderate rain can be expected
for the overnight hours without any thunder. I like the word our
midnight shift used to describe the amount of rain we`re going to
get: paltry. That pretty much sums up the tenth of an inch or less
everyone will see with this system. Rains will eventually get out of
here by the middle of tomorrow morning and leave us with
temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Once the rain gets out of here tomorrow morning, there`s a very good
chance we will kick off another long stretch of days without any
significant rain. The Tuesday Night-Wednesday system I talked about
last night has gotten even more pathetic than it looked 24 hours
ago. QPFs are running less than a quarter inch (some may not even
see any!) and with a morning frontal passage, instability likely
won`t have time to build up enough to cause us any issues. The rest
of the workweek will be highlighted by additional dry, drought-
strengthening conditions and temperatures within a couple degrees of
normal.

Model agreement on our next widespread rain maker is not very good.
Euro is suggesting something on Saturday, then again on Monday. GFS
has a dry weekend with the next system Sunday night. Either way,
both are showing a consistent signal of temperatures climbing up
near 90 degrees next weekend as weak ridging should precede any
rain and bring us a little taste of summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

-RA will continue into the morning hours of Monday, moving to
 eastern TAF sites only by 13z. Around 15z, winds will pick up out
 of the north and become gusty around 20 knots. Ceilings are
 expected to remain higher this TAF period, clearing out by 02z on
 Tuesday. No other concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  50  80  56 /  20   0   0  10
Clarksville    76  49  80  57 /  10   0   0  10
Crossville     69  45  74  52 /  40   0   0   0
Columbia       75  47  80  54 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     71  46  75  54 /  40   0   0   0
Jamestown      70  44  75  52 /  50   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   74  47  78  54 /  30   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   75  47  80  54 /  30   0   0   0
Waverly        76  49  79  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Holley