Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
859 FXUS64 KMRX 110523 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 123 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 - Increasing rain chances today associated with a cold front. Overall, light accumulation north of the southern valley and plateau, and SW North Carolina. - A 2nd cold front around Wednesday will bring the next potential round of light rainfall, primarily to our northern areas. - The heat gets turned up next weekend with upper 80s to low 90 degree highs in the valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 Not much rain had fallen yesterday up until this very time. A few sites recorded a few hundredths of an inch from afternoon showers. The rain potential with the anticipated cold front has shifted later and continues to change on amounts. Totals have increased for some, with the possibility of just over a quarter of an inch. Unfortunately, the southern plateau, valley, and SW NC may not see anything. According to surface analysis, the cold front currently slices diagonally across our area. The majority of the rain will fall early in the day with low chances for thunder. Upslope induced terrain showers may fire some thunderstorms later this afternoon before the complete exit of the system. HREF probs doesn`t even depict CAPE of 500 J/kg or above. The much drier air behind the front doesn`t arrive until later in the day today. Tomorrow morning lows are continuing to show temperatures generally above 40 degrees. Wind over the highest terrain may prevent full decoupling. That said, the frost potential is very low from where it was 48 hours ago. Tomorrow and Wednesday we warm a little compared to today, but another cold front will sweep through from the north. Yet another shot at light precipitation sometime Wednesday from this next system. The core of the moisture appears it`ll stay well north. Currently, QPF totals much lighter compared to today`s system, with again, favorability for the northern parts of the forecast area. Much cooler temperatures again Thursday and into Friday morning, where it appears 40s for lows just don`t want to leave us quite yet. Only a very short lived dip, because we will turn a hard corner going into the weekend. The locked in troughing will finally shift east and be replaced by ridging from the west. Low 90s are possible for the southern valley next Sunday. True southwesterly flow will also return, where dew points may even crack into the 60s. Hot and humid may actually finally arrive. Above average temperatures expected to continue a week beyond the forecast, according to the CPC. As far as precipitation is concerned, mostly dry weather can be expected the end of the week and into the weekend with possible outside chances of diurnal showers and storms through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 Rain showers are expected to spread into TYS and TRI in the 10-14Z time frame, and exit around 18Z. TYS should stay mainly VFR with the light rain, but a brief drop to MVFR vis cannot be ruled out. TRI will likely have some heavier showers that produce MVFR vis/cigs for a few hours this morning. CHA is expected to stay dry. Winds will shift to a N direction early this morning behind a cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 50 80 56 / 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 46 77 54 / 60 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 73 45 77 52 / 50 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 41 73 49 / 60 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KS AVIATION...DGS