591
FXUS63 KMQT 110520
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
120 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry start to the work week with below normal temperatures.

- A clipper system brings widespread light rain showers Tuesday
  into Wednesday.

- Warmer than normal temperatures are favored by the end of this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Benign weather continues through Monday as high pressure builds in
from the west. Scattered showers on radar are courtesy of steepening
low level lapse rates underneath an embedded shortwave aloft.
Precipitation will be tapering off this evening as diurnal heating
ceases. A few hundreths of rain could be observed in the central UP
(30-50% chance); any snow in higher terrain will not yield
measurable amounts. Temps in the 40s this afternoon descend into
the 20s (low 30s by the lakeshores) tonight with favorable radiative
cooling setting up. Monday brings similar highs, but warmer temps
interior west may push up near 60 (20% chance). Better mixing thanks
to clearer skies and high pressure bring RHs into the 20s in the
interior, but winds will be light (gusts 15 mph or lower) and temps
regardless are too cool for elevated fire weather concerns. Great
Lakes breezes are expected in the afternoon with diurnal-cu fields
over the central and southeast. Monday night won`t be quite as cold
with high pressure shifting southeast over the Lower Great Lakes
increasing WAA from southerly flow, but still yields lows in the 30s
for most. Downslope flow prevents areas in the far west from
settling below 40.

A clipper system brings back widespread rain to the UP on Tuesday
(>80% chance). Generally looking at system QPF between 0.15 and 0.30
inches, however weak elevated instability aligned with a brief wave
of PWATs between 0.75 and 1.00 inches could yield higher amounts up
to 0.5 inches (~33% chance). A rumble of thunder is possible, but
strong to severe storms are not expected as better instability
remains south of the UP. Trailing rain showers continue into
Wednesday morning under cyclonic flow, but additional accumulations
will be less than 0.1 inch per 6 hour period Tuesday night onward.
The other impact anticipated with this system is breezy southerly
winds gusting between 20-30 mph on Tuesday as strong WAA lines up
with a strengthening LLJ.

Late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night look dry as the mid
level ridge over the Plains moves east, bringing surface high
pressure over the Great Lakes region with it. From there a shift in
the large scale pattern is expected, however guidance struggles to
agree on how this exactly pans out into this weekend. Generally
expecting a shift to quazi-zonal flow over the CONUS with periodic
shortwave troughs tracking east across it. This supports low precip
chances (generally 15-30%) next weekend and warming trend as the
high pressure gives way to the east. Current forecast reflects highs
warming into the upper 50s and 60s Thursday onward; there is a 25%
chance for reaching low 70s interior west. Lows will be in the 40s
to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR prevails through the forecast period. Scattered to broken
midlevel clouds over the UP give way to clearing skies early today,
with light winds generally out of the NW. Upper level cloud cover
increases again this evening while winds turn over to the southeast
ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The terminals may flirt
with LLWS late tonight into early Tuesday morning ahead of the
approaching low, especially over IWD where LLWS chances are best.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Winds remain 20 kts or less through Monday night as high pressure
continues building in from the northwest. A clipper low descending
over the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday increases south to southeast
winds across the lake with 20-30 kt winds over the east. There is a
10-30% chance for gales to 35 kts near Stannard Rock Tuesday
afternoon, however warmer air over the cold lake surface will limit
stronger winds from mixing down. As this system continues over the
region into Tuesday night, winds quickly become northwest/north.
There is a 10-20% chance for gales to 35 kts near the southern
waters between Big Bay and Munising mid day Wednesday.

Behind this system, high pressure briefly returns for Wednesday night
into Thursday, allowing winds to fall back below 20 kts from west to
east by late Wednesday night. This weekend brings the next chances
for winds exceeding 20 kts, however details remain blurry due to
quickly diverging model guidance.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...LC/TAP
MARINE...77