909
FXUS63 KMPX 110015
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/Freeze Headlines in effect from midnight tonight through
Tuesday morning.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible Monday afternoon.

- Next best chance for rain arrives late Monday into Tuesday
  with low-end chances for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A quasi-stationary boundary that was draped over south-central
MN has now reached the MN/IA border. A remnant band of scattered
mid- level cu remains apparent across portions of southern MN
this afternoon from this boundary but is expected to diminish as
surface high pressure sinks southeastward through the rest of
today. Current temperature range in the 50s for most although a
bit warmer (in the low 60s) across southwestern MN where cloud
cover has been less prevalent. Like yesterday, forecast guidance
continues to undercut forecasted wind speeds and gusts,
therefore have had to nudge winds higher this afternoon based
off of observational trends. Thus, breezy northwesterly winds
20-25 mph can be expected especially across western MN before
decreasing tonight. The timing for this surface high aligns just
in time for when we should see our coldest temperatures for the
week. Mostly clear skies will aid in radiational cooling for
all of our overnight lows to reach the upper 20s, especially
across central Minnesota into portion of western Wisconsin.
Therefore a Freeze Warning has been issued from Douglas and
Stearns Counties in Minnesota over to Ladysmith and Eau Claire
Counties in Wisconsin. Aside from the core TC-metro (Hennepin
and Ramsey), a Frost Advisory has been issued for the rest of
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

For Monday, temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees
warmer.  An upper-level troughing pattern over the eastern
Great Lakes will continue eastward allowing for western thermal
ridging to build in across the plains. There will be a mix of
clouds and sunshine for much of the day as our next shortwave
trough approaches from the northwest. High temperatures will
range mainly in the 60s to the lower 70s across western MN. One
concern we will have to monitor is the potential once again for
elevated fire weather conditions. Depending on the shortwave`s
timing of the strongest winds, conditions may briefly reach Red
Flag criteria. By Monday night is when we see the arrival of
rainfall but all planned evening activities should remain dry.
Precip coverage across western MN for this event has been very
tricky due to guidance having a tough time with managing surface
dry air. However, ensemble guidance continues to favor areas
along and east of I-35 to accumulate a few hundredths to near a
tenth of an inch of rain. Therefore have nudged PoPs into 70-75%
envelope for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A threat
of a few isolated rumbles of thunder still exist but instability
continues to trend downward.

As for the remainder of the week, the pattern remains "somewhat"
active. Ensemble guidance does hint at additional chances of
precip in the latter half of the week. However, given the spread
amongst membership, felt NBM PoPs advertising 20-40% sufficed
for now. If you`re a fan of this chillier fall-esque like
weather, this may be the last hurrah of the season. Temperatures
return to normal with highs warming into the 70s and maybe even
lower 80s later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 713 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. SKC
through Monday morning then high clouds will filter in from the
west Monday afternoon-evening. NW winds will settle down to
around 10kts at initialization, eventually going light/variable
late evening through sunrise, then picking up from the SE after
sunrise to around 10kts, with occasional gusts 15-20kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, Chance -SHRA/MVFR early. Wind SW to NW 15-20G35kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.
THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for
     Benton-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Sherburne-Stearns-Todd.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for
     Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-
     Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for
     Barron-Chippewa-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for
     Dunn-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC