388
FXUS66 KMFR 161022
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
322 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

.SHORT TERM...

KEY MESSAGES...


* Light rain is expected along the coast, Douglas County, far
  northern Jackson County. Light rain/snow is expected in the
  Southern Oregon Cascades and northwest Klamath today. Snow levels
  down to around 4000 feet in the Cascades.

* Chances for light snow (Trace-1.5 inches) in eastern Lake county
  and portions of the southern Oregon Cascades tonight.

* Gusty afternoon/evening winds are expected today and Sunday.

* Brief, localized frost is possible Monday morning, in some west
  side valleys. Highest chances are in the Illinois and Applegate
  valleys and outlying areas of the southern Rogue Valley. Near
  and below freezing temperatures are likely in the Scott/Shasta
  valleys and east of the Cascades.

An upper level trough is moving into into the region today,
bringing areas of light precipitation, cool temperatures and gusty
afternoon/evening winds. Light precipitation will be mainly
focused today along the coast, across Douglas and northern
Jackson counties and into the Southern Oregon Cascades. With snow
levels of around 4000-4500 feet, expect a light dusting of snow in
the higher portions of the south- central Oregon Cascades. In the
afternoon, expect gusty northwest winds to develop with winds of
10-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. Strongest winds are expected in
the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades. Temperatures this
afternoon will be below normal with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s expected for inland valleys and highs in the upper 50s
along the coast.

The upper trough deepens and shifts southeastward tonight and
Sunday. Models and ensembles support areas of light precipitation
tonight and early Sunday morning in the Southern Oregon Cascades,
Lake County and far eastern Modoc County. This may bring light
accumulating snow, especially to the mountains. However, travel
impacts are unlikely with amounts generally around a trace to 1.5
inches. Breezy to gusty northerly winds are expected to develop
across the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will
trend slightly warmer on Sunday for areas west of the Cascades,
but will still remain slightly below normal. East of the Cascades,
expect continued cooler than normal temperatures.

Sunday night and Monday, the trough will shift eastward and an
upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific will nudge into the
area. Expect chilly temperatures Sunday night and Monday morning.
Models and guidance continue to support a potential for
temperatures to briefly lower into the mid 30s for some valleys
west the Cascades, mainly the Illinois and Applegate Valleys and
in some outlying areas of the southern Rogue Valley. Elsewhere,
for valleys west ofthe Cascades, expect morning lows in the upper
30s to lower 40s. Cold temperatures near or below freezing are
forecast in the Shasta and Scott Valleys and east of the Cascades.
Afternoon temperatures will trend warmer, near seasonal normals,
Monday afternoon.

Looking out farther, Tuesday through late next week, ensembles
continue to show the area under the eastern side of the ridge with
rising heights. This will result in warming temperatures and dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs...Low pressure will dominate the pattern
today. While energy will be focused upon Washington and northern
Oregon, this will bring periods of light precipitation to Coos,
Douglas, northern Curry, northern Jackson, northern Klamath and Lake
counties (with snow levels around 4000-5000 feet msl today, lowering
to 3500-4000 ft tonight). For these locations expect, areas of MVFR
and local IFR ceilings, especially during the overnight and morning
hours. Areas of mountain obscurations are expected for southwest
Oregon.

Elsewhere, VFR will persist with breezy, gusty northwest to north
winds of 15 to 25 kt and gusts 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, May 16, 2026...Steep seas will
spread to all areas this morning into early this afternoon as
increasing northwest swell builds into the waters and north winds
strengthen. Swell will lower late tonight but expect steep seas to
linger south of Cape Blanco. Then, north winds will increase Sunday
and Monday and bring a mix of steep to very steep seas to the
waters, with strongest winds and highest seas south of Cape Blanco.

Persistent gusty north winds along with multiple northwest swell
trains are expected through at least mid next week. At a minimum,
this will maintain steep seas for much of the area through mid next
week. However, the sustained northerly fetch Sunday through Thursday
could build very steep seas south of Cape Blanco. North winds also
could approach gale force at times, especially during the late
afternoon/evening hours.

A hazardous seas watch is in effect for the waters south of Cape
Blanco since it looks like at least a 4-5 day period of persistent
northerly winds/very steep steep seas (starting Sunday afternoon).
We`ve run it into Monday evening for now, but probably will need to
extend it as confidence increases in the duration of the event.


&&

.PREV LONG TERM... /Issued 213 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026/

Since upper level heights rise next week, we expect a mostly dry
pattern along with a warming trend. Temperatures rise to around
normal Monday, then back to above normal levels Tue- Thu. We`ll
remain in WNW flow aloft during this time period with weak
disturbances pushing by to the north every now and then. This
means that while it will turn warmer, no huge heat waves are
expected. Also, marine layer intrusions are likely to continue at
the coast during the nights/mornings; any of the deeper ones could
produce a little drizzle near the coast.

NBM has a dry forecast through at least next Friday and perhaps
even into next weekend, which would heighten fire weather
concerns due to rapidly drying fuels. Lightning risk during this
period though is low since moisture will be limited. Models are
hinting at the potential for a long wave trough to enter the
picture toward the last week of May with a potential cool down
back to normal and this is in line with the 8-14 day CPC forecast
at the moment. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$