623
FXUS62 KMFL 110507
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
107 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

    - Hot and humid again today, with afternoon heat indices
      around 100 over most of South FL.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon into early
      evening, with chances increasing each day through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Upper level trough will swing through the SE US today while a
surface front will also slide across the southeast. Locally, high
pressure will remain in control for one more day. Light southerly
flow will continue to pump humid air into the region, with PWAT
values this afternoon ranging from 1.8-2 inches. While some mid
level dry air will remain in place today, convection will eventually
get going mid to late afternoon, with the highest chance PoPs around
the lake region and over interior locations, with some convection
drifting towards the metro late in the day. While dynamics are not
very impressive today, a few strong to marginally severe wind gusts
can`t be ruled out later today, especially around the lake region
and over towards the Palm Beach county coast. Temperatures will
remain above normal, with high temps ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s across the metro, and low to mid 90s over the interior.
When combined with the high humidity, heat indices will be over
100 this afternoon, so heat precautions will need to be made if
you have outdoor plans. Temps will remain mild overnight only
falling into the 70s.

On Tuesday the frontal boundary will slowly start sliding south
across the state, reaching roughly the lake region by late in the
day. At the same time, the short wave trough axis will be to our
west over the Gulf. Forecast soundings show deep moisture throughout
the column with PWAT values around 2 inches and 500 mb temps cooling
slightly to -8 to -10C. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to start developing by late morning into the early
afternoon, with numerous storms across the area by mid to late
afternoon, especially over the metro and interior locations. Lowest
PoPs will be along the Gulf coast, but even folks over there may see
a few thunderstorms. While not currently outlooked for severe wx,
wouldn`t be surprised if a few storms approach severe wind limits.
Urban flooding may be a threat as well, considering expected slow
storm motions and high rainfall rates. High temps on Tuesday will
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

South FL weather will remain unsettled through mid week as the
frontal boundary slides south of the area and settles along the
Straits, however the mid/upper level trough will remain over the
region until late in the week before finally moving off to the east
along with a backdoor front sliding across the state. Upper level
ridging will start to build back in for the weekend. Highest PoPs
will be on Wednesday and Thursday and then gradual drying is
expected for the end of the work week and at least first part of the
weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across
the metro regions, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Low temps
each night will be in the 60s/70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE around 10 kts
this afternoon, with a westerly component expected at APF.
Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon into early
evening, which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the area waters each day
this week, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
Outside of convection, fairly benign conditions expected with light
southerly winds today. Seas generally 2 ft or less in the Atlantic
and a foot or less in the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  77  90  77 /  30  40  90  60
West Kendall     92  74  91  73 /  30  30  90  50
Opa-Locka        92  77  91  76 /  30  50  90  60
Homestead        90  76  90  76 /  20  20  80  50
Fort Lauderdale  88  78  87  77 /  30  60  80  70
N Ft Lauderdale  89  76  87  76 /  30  60  80  70
Pembroke Pines   93  78  92  77 /  30  60  90  60
West Palm Beach  90  76  87  76 /  50  60  80  60
Boca Raton       89  77  87  77 /  40  60  80  70
Naples           91  76  91  73 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF