619
FXUS64 KMEG 161732
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1232 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through Monday, with high
  temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many
  locations.

- An unsettled pattern starts late Monday, bringing low (20-30%)
  chances for showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of
  the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A subtle but weak mid-level shortwave trough is moving through
portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys through late
morning. This has resulted in a few isolated rain showers across
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel thus far. Otherwise,
regional METAR observations and regional WSR-88D radar trends
show little if any rain reaching the ground with relatively dry
air still present in the low and mid-levels across the Mid-South.

Short-term model trends suggest a low chance (mainly less than
15%) for rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm north
of I-40 into this afternoon. Otherwise, an upper-level high
centered near the Carolinas will result in most of the Mid-South
remaining dry throughout the weekend.

A gradual increase in moisture is expected by early next week
across the Mid-South, especially along and west of the
Mississippi River as low-level moist air advects up into the
region from the Gulf. Long term deterministic and ensemble model
solutions show a mid-level trough over the western U.S. ejecting
into the Upper Midwest by the latter half of next week with a
weak cold front eventually dropping into the area by late week.
Better upper level forcing and shear will remain displaced to the
north leaving the area under a relatively weak shear, pulse type
convective environment. Consequently, best chances for daily
showers and thunderstorms will be driven by peak heating with
convective temperatures being reached. Consequently, any strong
to severe thunderstorm potential thus remains limited.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 30 hours. The
primary aviation weather impact will remain southerly winds.
Gusts will be most likely to occur at JBR and MEM, confined to
the daylight hours.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Fire weather concerns will be minimal through the upcoming week
due to the presence of a humid airmass. Wetting rain chances
return late Monday into Tuesday and will persist through the end
of the week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM