753
FXUS64 KMAF 161948
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Summer-like heat expected through early next week. Highs along
  portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees
  during this time frame.

- Hot, breezy, and very dry conditions will bring critical fire
  weather conditions to the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New
  Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin Sunday and Monday.

- Rain and storm chances increase (30-70% chances) by the middle
  to latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The biggest story this weekend will be continued hot daytime
temperatures, strong south/southwest winds, and fire weather risk
(see Fire Weather Discussion). VIS/IR satellite imagery this
afternoon indicates mostly clear skies apart from the eastern
Permian Basin into Terrell County, and this is expected to persist
through tonight into tomorrow, with only a stray (<5%) chance of
showers/storms over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County .
Highs again rise into the 90s to lower 100s F, 80s F higher
elevations, and 105F to 110F for the Big Bend. Hazardous heat is
expected for the Big Bend central and northern portions of the
forecast area where Heat Risk will rise to level 3. Make sure to
drink plenty of water and minimize time spent outdoors!
South/southwest winds increase over the area this afternoon as a
dryline sharpens over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County.
Dew point temperatures increase tonight from the 20s and 30s F into
the 50s to lower 60s F over much of the Permian Basin into Terrell
County, limiting overnight cooling and preventing lows from falling
below 70F in the more humid air. Farther west where dew point
temperatures will remain below 45F, lows in the mid to upper 50s F
higher elevations and northern Lea County to lower 60s F elsewhere
are expected. Tomorrow we can expect much the same in terms of
temperatures, but with stronger south/southwest winds as troughing
over the Intermountain West intensifies and results in stronger
south/southwest winds overspreading the area in the mid to upper
troposphere and mixing down to the surface. The stronger winds and
continued hot temperatures will increase the fire weather risk,
especially for regions west of the dryline such as Culberson County,
southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin. Lows tomorrow
night will be similar to tonight as the summer-like weather pattern
continues, although there is up to 10% to 15% chance of shower/storms
over the northern Permian Basin early Monday morning. Hot weather
with low (<30%) rain chances then persists through early next week.
However, cooler and more unsettled weather looks increasingly
likely by the middle of next week. Read the long term discussion
for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Dry southwesterly flow aloft will continue across southeast New
Mexico and west Texas on Monday ahead of a shortwave trough
lifting over the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Surface low
pressure remains over the vicinity of southwestern Kansas and the
Oklahoma/TX panhandles on Monday with the associated trough axis
extending down into the Permian Basin and Big Bend. Another hot
and breezy day can be expected across the forecast area with high
temperatures reaching into the 90s to around 102 degrees for most.
A few locations along the Rio Grande will top out between 105 and
110 degrees. The dryline should mix to the east of our forecast
area by Monday afternoon, so rain/storm chances appear to be nil
across our region. A cold front is forecast to sink southward
through the Texas panhandle and South Plains region Monday night
into Tuesday morning, but the latest forecast guidance stalls this
boundary over the northeastern Permian Basin/western Low Rolling
Plains by Tuesday afternoon as surface low pressure tends to
develop over southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos region.
Temperatures have subsequently trended a little warmer on Tuesday
afternoon for most, with highs once again reaching into the 90s
over much of the region, with locations along the Rio Grande
ranging between 101 and 109 degrees. The dryline may extend
south from the stalled boundary into the eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos on Tuesday, where at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening hours.

A more unsettled weather pattern will take shape as we go into the
middle to latter part of the week. An upper-level trough will
deepen over the southwestern U.S. Wednesday into Thursday with an
upper-level low potentially developing over the vicinity of the
Baja by Friday. Shortwave impulses embedded within the westerly
to southwesterly flow aloft will periodically move across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas ahead of this feature through
the middle to latter half of the week. Low level flow also
transitions more southeasterly to easterly over much of the region
as the aforementioned cold front advances into the forecast area
on Wednesday and essentially stalls out over western and southern
parts of our CWA Thursday into Friday. Low level moisture
increases with this pattern with dewpoints back into the 40s and
50s for much of the area, and even into the lower to mid 60s over
our eastern zones, including the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. Ascent provided by the periodic impulses will combine with
increased deep layer moisture/precipitable water values along the
stalled front to bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday-Friday. Rain and storm chances currently
look to be most favored late Wednesday into Thursday when the most
prolific shortwave impulse moves over our region. Instability and
shear parameters could support organized storms and potentially
at least a low end severe threat both days, though confidence is
still low this far out. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding may
also be a concern late Wednesday into the day Thursday with the
increased moisture and stalled boundary in place over the CWA.
Cooler temperatures return behind the front as we go into the
latter part of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue across southeast
New Mexico and much of west Texas this weekend into early next
week. Above normal temperatures, 20 foot winds over 20 mph, and
extremely low RH values around 5% will result in critical fire
weather conditions over the northwest Permian Basin, southeast
New Mexico, and Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent Sacramento
Foothills Sunday and Monday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued
for these fire weather zones Sunday, with a Fire Weather Watch
Monday given the very dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th
percentiles) and RFTI values between 5-8. Elevated to near-
critical fire weather conditions can be expected over the
remainder of the area through early next week. Cooler temperatures
and improved RH values return during the middle to latter portion
of the week along with increased rain and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions forecast throughout the period. Sustained
south/southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 knots at terminals by
19Z-21Z, gusting to 20 to 25 knots. Winds decrease but remain
southerly 02Z-07Z, further decreasing 09Z-12Z before winds again
increase 10 to 15 knots into the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  98  70 100 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 64  95  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   71  99  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            66  99  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  84  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    61  95  59  93 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                    55  90  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     68  96  69  98 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   68  96  69  98 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                     64  97  63  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ Sunday for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...94