825
FXUS64 KLZK 190558
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1258 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

-Line of showers/thunderstorms to move southeast through the state
today into this evening

-Threat for seeing severe weather with this line of thunderstorms
will be limited by instability...though some isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds will be
primary threat

-Locally heavy rainfall may lead to an isolated flash flood threat
today

-Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms
 forecast into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

All quiet across AR so far early this Tue morning...with some breezy
SRLY winds noted. Temps remain warm in the 70s for most areas...with
dewpts also in the 60s and 70s. A line of TSRA is ongoing across NRN
OK into SERN KS and WRN MO...slowly moving SE over time. This line
of convention will be the primary wx story through this Tue
afternoon/evening.

Expect this line of convection to drop SE into the state sometime
near sunrise...eventually dropping SE through the state by late this
afternoon/early evening. The overall threat for SVR convection with
this line as it moves SE will be limited by instability...which
forecast instability is generally lacking. SHR is also limited
during the daylight hrs...with the highest 0-3 km SRH this morning
just ahead of the line over NWRN sections. While this doesn`t mean
organized SVR Wx won`t happen...just means the potential will be
limited...and likely isolated in nature. If SVR convection were to
develop...damaging winds look to be the primary threat...with some
marginally SVR hail possible also. The overall tornado threat looks
to remain low...and may be limited to far NWRN sections during the
morning hrs when the SRH is best. However...this is also when CIN
will also be elevated...which should help keep that tornado threat
low.

Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen as this line of convection
drops slowly SE over time. While most of this rainfall will be
welcome given the ongoing drought conditions...there could be a few
isolated spots see enough rainfall that could create an isolated
flash flood threat.

Beyond this evening...chances for precip do decrease overnight into
Wed morning. However...an unsettled pattern will continue as SW flow
aloft will remain SW over the region into early  next week. Upper
waves will pass over the state...which will create some forcing for
convection generally each day through the week and through the
weekend. While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks low at this
time...late May climatology suggest some SVR threat may be possible
each day. When...where...and what SVR threat may exist will depend
on day to day specifics regarding the stability and SHR. As a
result...the threat should remain uncertain for now. The threat for
seeing heavy rainfall for the next 4-7 days may increase given
multiple rounds of rainfall possible...but ongoing drought
conditions and exact placement of heaviest rainfall through the next
week keep the threat for flash flooding uncertain at this time as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

MVFR cigs expected to become widespread across the state through
12z. A line of storms will approach from the NW and move slowly SE
across area terminals throughout the day. Northern AR terminals
will see precip first with KLLQ likely seeing TS activity after
18z. As storms move across the terminals expect lowering cigs/vsby
for at least a couple of hours. Some locally strong/erratic wind
gusts will be seen as well. In the wake of the precip, northern AR
terminals will likely see the longest period of MVFR/IFR cigs,
likely lasting through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  66  75  62 /  80  50  60  40
Camden AR         89  67  82  65 /  80  60  70  60
Harrison AR       79  60  70  59 /  90  70  50  30
Hot Springs AR    84  67  80  64 /  90  40  60  50
Little Rock   AR  87  67  79  63 /  80  50  70  50
Monticello AR     90  69  82  67 /  70  80  80  60
Mount Ida AR      81  68  79  66 /  90  40  70  50
Mountain Home AR  80  61  71  58 /  90  60  50  30
Newport AR        88  66  77  62 /  70  60  70  40
Pine Bluff AR     89  68  80  65 /  80  50  70  50
Russellville AR   82  66  78  63 /  90  50  60  40
Searcy AR         87  65  78  61 /  70  50  70  40
Stuttgart AR      89  69  80  66 /  80  50  70  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67