040
FXUS66 KLOX 110224
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
724 PM PDT Sun May 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...10/1231 PM.

Temperatures away from the coast will warm into the 80s and 90s
through Monday. 100 degree readings may occur locally in the
warmest valleys and Antelope Valley. Coastal low clouds will
develop each night, expanding into the valleys Tuesday as a
cooling trend begins.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...10/723 PM.

Overall, no major changes to previous forecast thinking in the
short term period. Upper level ridge will peak in strength on
Monday then move eastward on Tuesday/Wednesday as an upper low
approaches/moves across northern California. At the surface,
moderate to strong onshore pressure gradients will continue.

Forecast-wise, main issue will be temperatures. With the ridge
peaking in strength, temperatures on Monday will be very warm with
highs in the mid 80s to around 100 away from the coast (10-20
degrees above normal), but will be noticeably cooler at the coast
due to the continued marine influence. Based on current Heat Risk
numbers, do not anticipate any need for Heat Advisories on Monday.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, a cooling trend for all areas is
expected with the continued onshore pressure gradients and
lowering H5 heights/thicknesses.

As for clouds, marine layer clouds and fog will continue during
the night/morning hours. With the upper ridge peaking in strength
tonight/Monday, stratus fog should remain confined to the coastal
plain and lower coastal valleys. However for Tuesday and
Wednesday, the stratus/fog will become more widespread and
penetrate further inland as the inversion deepens in response to
the lowering H5 heights. Each afternoon, some beach areas could
remain cloudy due to the moderate to strong onshore flow. Other
than the marine layer clouds, skies are generally remain mostly
clear through the period.

As for winds, the moderate to strong onshore pressure gradients
will generate gusty southwesterly winds across interior sections
each afternoon and evening. At this time, any advisory-level winds
are expected to remain rather localized (mainly across some of the
Antelope Valley foothills).

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...10/121 PM.

Increasing northerly flow aloft is expected Thursday as the upper
low over northern California moves into Nevada. Ensemble pressure
gradient charts show increasing north to south gradients across
the Santa Ynez Range and the western Transverse Range beginning
as early as Wednesday evening and continuing through at least
Saturday. Gradients expected to be in the -3 to -5 range during
that period that would support at least advisory level winds,
strongest in the late afternoon and overnight hours.

The increase in northerly flow may keep low clouds away from
southern Santa Barbara County but otherwise expecting the marine
layer to push into most of the coastal and valleys each day.
Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal Thursday, then
reaching near normal temperatures Friday and 3-6 degrees above
normal next weekend as high pressure aloft returns.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0120Z.

At 0051Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4800 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in KWJF and KPMD TAFs.

Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Timing of flight
category changes may be off by 3 hours and one flight category at
any point. There is a 30-40 percent chance that VFR conds prevail
for KBUR/KVNY. There is a 40% chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB
in the 13Z-17Z time frame.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cats
may be off by +/- 3 hours, and there is a 25% chance of no VFR
transition once cigs arrive. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent
chance that VFR conds prevail.

&&

.MARINE...10/721 PM.

Across the outer and northern waters, Both winds and seas will
diminish below Small Craft Advisory levels overnight. Conditions
are then expected to remain below advisory levels across all the
coastal waters through Tuesday.

Wednesday night through the weekend, winds and seas will start to
strengthen/build, with SCA winds across the outer waters starting
late Wednesday night and Seas reaching steep and choppy SCA
levels around Friday night. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds
across the inner waters, with the highest chances each afternoon
and evenings especially across the western portion of the Santa
Barbara Channel. GALE Force winds will be possible across the
outer waters as early as Thursday afternoon, with highest chances
on Saturday into Sunday.

Dense fog may become more widespread each night to morning through
Tuesday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/MW
AVIATION...KL
MARINE...Lund/Munroe
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox