948
FXUS63 KLBF 110527
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1227 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday across the
  area a a red flag warning is in effect for the area.

- Near critical-and possibly critical fire weather conditions
  are possible Tuesday and Wednesday across the area. On
  Tuesday, fire weather concerns are greatest east of highway
  83, while on Wednesday the main concerns are west of highway
  83. There may be fire weather concerns late in the week. This
  will be dependent on whether or not gulf moisture can push
  into the area from the south.

- Well above seasonal temperatures are expected to last all week
  and into the weekend. Some uncertainty remains in the late
  week precipitation forecast, which will largely depend on a
  potential plume of Gulf moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Surface high pressure will drift south from Kansas into
Oklahoma overnight. Winds will start out from the west this
evening, shifting to the southwest overnight. With clear skies
and fairly light winds, overnight lows will reach the lower 40s
with readings slightly cooler in the Platte River Valley.
Overnight, a mid level shortwave will track from northwestern
Washington State east along the US/Canadian border. By 12z
Monday this feature is expected to be over northwestern Montana.
Downstream of this feature, surface low pressure will deepen
over southern Saskatchewan and northeastern Montana. A surface
trough will extend south of the low into eastern Montana and
northern Wyoming by daybreak Monday. Low pressure will then
track into western North Dakota during the day on Monday with a
surface trough extending south into the western Nebraska
Panhandle. East of the trough and north of the surface high over
eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, a tightening surface pressure
gradient will lead to breezy conditions across the area Monday.
Looking at the latest bufkit soundings, both the NAM and GFS
solns show gust potential of 25 to 35 MPH east of the panhandle
Monday afternoon. This is also supported by the latest NBM
ensembles which show 80 to 100% chance of exceedance of 25 MPH
wind gusts Monday afternoon. Highs Monday will reach into the
middle to upper 80s across the entire forecast area, and with
dry boundary layer conditions in place across the area, minimum
RH Monday afternoon will range from 10 to 20 percent across the
area. This will lead to widespread critical fire weather
conditions across the area Monday afternoon. More about that in
the fire section below. Surface low pressure will track into
central Minnesota Monday night, forcing a cold front into
northern Nebraska late evening. This front will migrate south
overnight and is expected to be just off to the southeast of the
forecast area at 12z Tuesday. Winds in advance of the front
Monday evening and behind the front overnight, will lead to mild
overnight lows around 50 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Highs behind the exiting cold front will range from the middle
70s to lower 80s Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be gusty behind
the front Tuesday morning, relaxing in the west by afternoon as
high pressure noses into the western Dakotas and northeastern
Wyoming. Across the northeast, gusty winds may persist into the
afternoon, leading to near-critical and possibly critical fire
weather conditions Tuesday afternoon as minimum RH`s will bottom
out around 20 percent. Further west, winds are expected to peak
during the morning into midday relaxing in the afternoon.
Surface high pressure will drop southeast from the Dakotas into
Nebraska Tuesday night, tracking into eastern Nebraska
Wednesday. West of the high, gusty southerly winds and decent
warm air advection will develop across the western half of the
forecast area Wednesday afternoon. As was the case yesterday,
the latest NBM ensemble forecast does have a strong signal for
25+MPH wind gusts west of highway 83 Wednesday afternoon. With
highs expected to be in the middle 80s and min RH bottoming out
around 15 to 20 percent, red flag potential looks decent
Wednesday afternoon across the west.

An upper level trough will enter northern California Wednesday
night. Down stream of this feature, ridging aloft will migrate onto
the central plains from the Rockies. With high pressure off to the
east and a deepening surface trough along the front ranges of
Colorado and Wyoming, southerly winds will increase Wednesday night
into Thursday. A tongue of low level moisture, as depicted in the
deterministic GFS and EC solns, lifts north into the forecast area
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday. Both these solns advertise
dew points reaching into the 50s across the area. However, the
latest NBM is much more pessimistic with moisture return and has
much drier and warmer temps for the forecast area Thursday. With the
ridge breakdown Wednesday night into Thursday, highs Thursday reach
well into the upper 80s/lower 90s per the latest NBM guidance. These
highs are plausible given forecast dew points in the 40s for
Thursday. If the NBM soln were to verify, the combination of winds
and low RH would lead to possibly critical fire weather conditions
Thursday, and again on Friday. With the deterministic solns being
consistent with their moisture return, will mention a possible fire
weather threat Thursday and Friday highlighting uncertainties with
moisture return. As for precipitation chances Thursday/Friday with
the moisture return: The latest NBM is very pessimistic with
precipitation chances Thursday and Friday. No surprise here with it
being drier. As for the GFS and EC solns, there is a strong cap
indicated Thursday afternoon with the best instability aloft well
off to the west of the area. That being said, with the NBM dry and
the noted CAP in place, am alright with a predominately dry forecast
for Thursday into Friday. Forecast confidence with respect to
precipitation chances falls further this upcoming weekend. Both
solns develop a fairly low amplitude pattern across the western
CONUS. However, they diverge significantly with the degree of low
level moisture return across the area. The GFS remains fairly dry,
in line with the NBM, while the EC soln pushes a second shot of gulf
moisture into the area next Sunday developing precipitation across
the area. As for highs, the current NBM forecast has highs in the
upper 70s/lower 80s next weekend which is 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for mid May.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska through the effective TAF period. Expecting high
cloud cover to track across the region overnight, with some mid to
high level cloud development throughout the day. More notably, winds
begin to increase out of the southwest by the morning, becoming
gusty through the evening. Gusts in excess of 25 knots are possible
across most of the region this afternoon. By evening, expecting
winds to decrease for a bit, but a passing cold front may keep gusty
winds overnight. Additionally, a strong low level jet is expected to
develop late evening, which may introduce LLWS concerns. Will omit
from the TAF at this time, due to lower confidence in timing, but
expect some LLWS to develop either late this TAF period to just
beyond this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Have upgraded the fire weather watch to a red flag warning for all
of western and north central Nebraska for Monday. Temperatures will
surge into the mid to upper 80s across the area with gusty
southwesterly winds developing. Was concerned about a surface trough
anchored over the panhandle, which may limit winds some on Monday,
however, feel this feature is depicted far enough west with the
latest AM model solns to be a non factor in winds across the area
Monday afternoon. The latest NBM ensemble probabilistic forecast has
a 80 to 100% chance of 25+ MPH wind gusts across almost the entire
forecast area Monday afternoon which lends additional support to a
RFW. Minimum RH will range from around 10 percent in the west to
around 20 percent in the east. Winds will continue into the
overnight Monday night as a cold front passes through the area. This
will limit RH recovery to 50 to 60 percent Tuesday morning. Fire
weather concerns will continue through at least Wednesday across the
area. On Tuesday, northwesterly winds behind an exiting cold front
will be gusty CWA wide Tuesday morning. Winds will begin to relax
from west to east Tuesday afternoon with the strongest gusts over
the far eastern forecast area. In these areas, ensembles indicate a
strong potential for 25 MPH wind gusts Tuesday afternoon. This would
mainly impact zone 209 as minimum RH flirts with 20 percent. On
Wednesday, gusty southerly winds will develop across the western
half of Nebraska. Strong warm air advection and highs in the mid 80s
will lead to minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent across the area. Winds
have the best potential to reach critical RFW criteria along and
west of highway 83.

Beyond Wednesday, the fire weather forecast becomes problematic
Thursday and Friday given model differences between the latest
GFS/EC solns and the NBM forecast. There is decent forecast
confidence with respect to a ridge breakdown Thursday into Friday.
Highs Thursday will reach upper 80s to lower 90s across the area.
Critical or near-critical fire weather conditions will be highly
dependent on whether or not low level moisture return Wednesday
night materializes. If this does, min RH`s will be too high for fire
headlines. If it does not, near critical and possibly critical fire
weather conditions look probable for Thursday and possibly
Friday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT
/9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler