Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
729 FXUS62 KKEY 110245 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1045 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat risk remains moderate to major through at least Tuesday. Dew points are expected to drop from the mid 70s to the lower 70s by mid week. - Chances for rainfall will remain low while dry air aloft lingers over the Florida Keys. - A weak frontal boundary mid week may bring a round of short-lived showers and a break from southeasterly breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 951 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 Weather conditions have remained benign this evening across the Florida Keys as our first real taste of summertime is here! As of 5 PM this evening, the high temperature at Key West International Airport tied the daily high temperature record of 90 degrees. This record was most recently set in 2024. Dew points during peak heating were in the mid to upper 70s, giving us heat index values around 100F to 105F, give or take a couple of degrees. The dominating high pressure pattern coupled with continuous southeasterly breezes ushering low level moisture will maintain these conditions for the next couple of days. There was some question as to whether or not we would see some shower activity within the bounds of our CWA today, but our KBYX radar has been void of meteorological returns. The 00Z KKEY sounding from this evening showed an inversion at around 970mb, and an ostentatious amount of dry air in the low to mid level layers. In fact, the sounding had a calculated PWAT of 1.44", but satellite derived PWAT suggested almost an inch of this water was between the surface and 850mb. All of this is just to say that, while we do need some rainfall in our backyard, we couldn`t quite get past the cap and dry air. Automated observations are currently reporting temperatures in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s, so the "good" news is that heat indices are under triple digits. However, it is still a little muggy along the island chain. No changes are needed int he short term with this evening update. && .MARINE... Issued at 951 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories across the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, light to gentle southeasterly breezes will continue through the start of the work week. Deep layers of dry air will keep shower and thunderstorm coverage low through the early part of the work week. A weak frontal boundary during the middle of the week may be able to somewhat increase rain chances. Expect periods of variable winds during the week as the influence of the Atlantic high wanes across the Florida Keys. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 951 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals with FEW to SCT skies between FL015 and 025. Southeasterly surface winds will remain near 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 81 87 81 87 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest