033
FXUS63 KJKL 162121
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
521 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal to slight risk for severe storms persists this
  evening across Kentucky, with the greatest concern being
  damaging wind gusts along the I-64 corridor.

- A warming trend emerges tomorrow, with temperatures forecast to
  climb to much above normal readings on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 410 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Late today, beneath west southwest flow in the mid-upper levels,
a stalled frontal boundary was located well to our northwest over
the Midwest while surface high pressure was off the southeast
coast. Broad generalized southwest flow between the front and the
high was bringing warm, moist air north and northeast off the
gulf. Although, weak waves aloft were resulting in areas of
thunderstorms giving localized breaks in the low level flow
regime. Some of these thunderstorms were affecting the forecast
area in the afternoon, but had died out. The greatest instability
as of late afternoon is in a corridor extending eastward into the
south central portion of the forecast area, with
temperatures/instability in locations further northeast not
recovered from earlier convection. With modest shear/flow aloft
(600-500 mb flow around 50 kts), should cells maintain themselves
long enough and tap into this instability, a few strong to severe
storms can`t be ruled out yet.

Much further west, an east northeast moving circulation was evident
in satellite imagery over the Ozarks this afternoon, and mesoscale
models are suggesting it will support another more concentrated area
of thunderstorms or potential MCS developing over western KY and
southern IN early this evening and tracking near or across our
northern counties late in the evening. Will carry a higher POP there
for that potential, but with supporting features being weak,
confidence in the details is not that great.

Overnight and on Sunday, ridging at the surface and aloft over the
southeast CONUS is expected to strengthen. This results in weaker
flow and warmer temperatures aloft for our area which last through
Sunday night. With that, dry weather and mostly clear skies are
expected, along with warmer surface temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 515 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

An amplified ridging pattern yields much warmer than normal
temperatures across Eastern Kentucky for the start of the next work
week, but thankfully, that warmth will not persist for long. As the
week progresses, shortwave impulses will rotate around the base of a
broad, positively-tilted trough draped from the Southern Plains to
the Upper Midwest. The passage of those disturbances will culminate
in the suppression of the ridge, which places the Greater Ohio River
Valley in a regime of quasi-zonal flow for the second half of the
work week.

At the surface, this pattern translates to hot and mostly dry
conditions on Monday before a slow-moving cold front approaches the
forecast area around midweek. Given the subsidence and geopotential
height rises observed across the area in Monday`s forecast guidance,
it is progged to be the warmest day of the period. Efficient diurnal
mixing should allow highs to climb into the lower half of the 90s,
especially in the deeper valleys of Eastern KY (like the Big Sandy
River Basin). Blended NBM guidance continues to run on the higher
side of the ensemble envelope, so in coordination with neighboring
WFOs, Monday`s highs were blended towards lower percentiles.
Dewpoints will lag behind in upper 50s and lower 60s, so heat
indices should not be much different than the ambient temperature.
Sensitive populations may experience heat-related impacts with
prolonged exposure on Monday, but any instances will be isolated.
While Monday`s forecast highs will challenge records, they will not
approach heat headline criteria. This early season does
coincidentally coincide with the 2026 interagency Heat Safety Week
campaign, and interested parties are encouraged to tune in to
official NWS social media platforms for infographics related to heat
headline criteria, heat illness/impacts, and heat risk mitigation.

Low level flow becomes breezier and adopts a more southwesterly
orientation on Tuesday. This should correspond with increasing
moisture return and thus relatively greater sky cover and slightly
cooler temperatures in the upper 80s on Tuesday afternoon. With more
widespread dewpoints in the 60s, diurnally-driven isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast. The
previously-mentioned boundary lags off to the NW of the CWA on
Tuesday, meaning that any convection will lack the frontal forcing
and dynamic support aloft to be on the stronger side. However, that
forcing looks to arrive by Wednesday and produce more widespread
shower and storms. The convective parameter spacing for Wednesday`s
activity is conditional on what happens upstream the previous day,
so it is difficult to pinpoint those specifics at the current
temporal range. However, the stalling nature of the boundary could
cause multiple rounds of convectively-bolstered rainfall to track
across the region. Most of this rain should prove highly beneficial
to the ongoing drought, and it will also work to lower temperatures
back towards seasonal averages through the end of the period.

However, if it stalls out for too long over the forecast area amidst
the quasi-zonal flow aloft, the repetitive rainfall will get old.
There remains some model uncertainty on where this stall occurs and
how long it persists for. WPC has accordingly outlined a broad-
brushed Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the region on
Wednesday. Widespread, significant flash flooding is not the most
likely forecast solution, but isolated instances cannot be entirely
ruled out if stronger storms track over the same place multiple
times in a row. Forecast confidence will increase once this
boundary`s approach enters the temporal range of the higher-
resolution, convective-allowing forecast model suite. For now,
confidence is highest in the thermal sensible weather effects from
this boundary. Expect highs to drop into the 70s to close out the
work week, with overnight lows returning to the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 410| PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Scattered showers/thunderstorms were present at the start of the
period, but were on the decline and on the way out to the east.
This will leave us with a period of VFR conditions area wide late
this afternoon. However, additional thunderstorms may develop,
especially as we move into the evening. This is most likely over
northern portions of the area, especially near/north of I-64, and
could bring localized IFR or worse conditions. This activity is
expected to diminish and exit to the north during the night.
Should there be few enough clouds, valley fog would be a concern.
This would be most likely in the southern portion of the forecast
area and could result in localized VLIFR conditions. However, this
is not currently forecast to affect TAF sites. VFR conditions are
forecast to return area wide early Sunday morning and last into
the afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL