793
FXUS62 KJAX 110525
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
125 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally dense fog possible inland areas Early Monday morning

- Scattered Thunderstorms Today, Mainly During the Afternoon &. Isolated
  strong to severe storms possible. Main thunderstorm hazards:
  Locally damaging wind gusts and hail

- Small Craft Advisory likely for area waters Late Tonight through.
  High rip current risk possible Tuesday into Wednesday

- Exceptional to Extreme Drought continues Wildfire Risk

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon, and then
  higher rain chances tonight.
- An Isolated Severe Storm possible with damaging winds, hail,
  and frequent lightning. A very low threat of a brief tornado
  near the coast.

Patchy to areas of fog and stratus expected early this morning and
will dissipate by mid morning.  A cold front will be located across
inland SC to far southeast LA at sunrise with a pre-frontal trough
bisecting part of the forecast area oriented sw-ne. Mean layer flow
becomes more westerly today, but low to mid wind speeds are not as
strong as the weekend, while moisture levels remain sufficient,
somewhat lower than the weekend, for convection with PWAT values
generally 1.4 to 1.7 inches.

The forecast for today calls for scattered showers and thunderstorms
which should be developing during the afternoon and evening from the
peak heating. Not much impressive dynamics aloft initially today
with weak to neutral height falls going through the mid afternoon
hours, but this begins to change by this evening and into tonight.
Shortwave energy will be approaching from the northwest and west
tonight with gradual height falls occurring. At the sfc, the
aforementioned cold front will be pressing southward this evening
with possible frontal wave development over southeast GA. We expect
rain chances to increase tonight with the approach of shortwave and
front. The front will sweep in from the north over southeast
GA during the evening, shifting southward into northeast FL just
after midnight, and likely ending up in north central FL by sunrise
Tuesday morning.

The forecast area is covered in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe weather based on the SPC outlook. Main threat will be strong
to damaging wind gusts, hail, and a brief tornado. The tornado risk
is mainly focused near the east coast sea breeze where the low level
shear is best as the westerly flow is up against the slow moving
east coast sea breeze. Model soundings depict MLCAPE of around 1400-
1800 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kt later today.

Thunderstorms chances exist this evening, but are expected to
diminish slightly overnight as the airmass stabilizes more.

Max temps today forecast in the 85 to 90 deg range, and lows tonight
mid 60s for southeast GA and upper 60s to around 70 for northeast FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Scattered to numerous shower and isolated T`storms Tuesday across
 Northeast FL
-Breezy onshore flow Tuesday with Hazardous Beach Conditions
-Widely scattered T`storms Wednesday along the Atlantic Seabreeze

Tuesday, mid to upper level trough axis will swing east off the SE
coast with a lingering southern stream shortwave along the central
Gulf coast shifting east to southeastward across the FL panhandle,
Northeast and north central FL during the afternoon. This feature
will provide instability aloft while a surface front sinks from
northern central FL into central FL as high pressure builds in from
the north. Despite the north to northeasterly breezy flow, Gulf and
Atlantic seabreeze boundaries will shift inland and combined with
moist low level airmass remaining will develop scattered to numerous
showers with isolated to scattered T`storms. The increasing north to
NE winds 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph along the coast and diminishing
with inland extent to 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph over inland areas
west of US-17 will bring slightly drier air over inland SE GA. Highs
will be cooler than Monday with mid to upper 70s across much of SE
GA, low 80s over inland NE FL and mid 80s south of a Palatka to
Gainesville to Trenton line with upper 70s to near 80 along the NE
FL coast.

Drier air will allow showers and lingering isolated T`storms to sag
into central FL Tuesday evening and the FL coastal waters as an
inverted trough forms north of the front offshore. Lows will range
from the upper 50s over Altamaha river basin in SE GA to the low 60s
to I-10 and mid/upper 60s over north central FL and the SE GA coast
with milder lows in the low 70s over NE FL beaches.

Wednesday, ridging aloft and the associated surface high will move
off the Mid Atlantic coast as a compact trough moves southeastward
from the Upper Midwest into the OH valley and Great Lakes. Weak
ridging will remain over the coastal southeast. Light winds from the
east southeast will turn westerly in the afternoon with easterly
winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze as it moves towards US-17.
Isolated to widely scattered T`storms will form mostly along the
convergence of the Atlantic and St Johns river breeze where lift
will be maximized and overcome the dry air in the mid levels. Strong
to severe potential appears low with weak shear. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 80s inland and the low 80s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry Conditions late this week into the Weekend

Thursday, a cold front will drop southward through the area, but
should remain dry as high pressure builds to the north through
Friday, then settles over the region Friday night into early
Saturday. An overall weak pressure gradient pattern and abundant
sunshine will allow for daily seabreeze circulations, but no showers
expected.

Saturday and Sunday, high pressure will move eastward into the
Atlantic with prevailing dry conditions until Sunday afternoon when
increasing moisture around the high to the east and inland moving
seabreezes kick off widely isolated T`storms.

Temperatures during the period will be near normal Thursday and
Friday afternoon with slightly drier air behind the front bringing
cool mornings inland in the upper 50s to low 60s while warmer in the
mid to upper 60s at the coast Friday and Saturday mornings.

Temperatures will rise above normal this weekend with highs reaching
into the low 90s away from the coast and the mid/upper 80s at the
beaches with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland to the low 70s at the
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Cigs and vsby expected to lower through the early morning until
around 12z. Expect IFR to LIFR conditions to materialize with
SGJ maybe the main one that may escape the worst of the lower
cigs or vsby. These conditions will improve through mid morning
with VFR clouds expected during the aftn. However, daytime
heating and sufficient moisture will allow scattered showers and
storms to form by the afternoon. A PROB30 group is warranted
for this activity this aftn. Additional shower and a thunderstorm
chances expected later tonight into early Tuesday as a cold
front moves in from the north and upper level disturbance
approach the area.

&&

.MARINE...

A strong cold front will approach the region today with scattered
thunderstorms likely this afternoon into tonight with a couple of
strong to briefly severe storms possible. The cold front will then
push across the local waters tonight. Northwest to north winds will
strengthen tonight in the wake of the frontal passage, with conditions
likely reaching Small Craft Advisory levels for portions of the
area waters tonight through Tuesday. Weak high pressure will
briefly build over the area Wednesday before a dry cold front
moves through on Thursday.

Rip Currents:

A low to moderate rip current risk is expected today, with surf
heights generally below 2 feet. The risk will be locally higher
within a few hours of low tide, especially near sandbars. The next
potential for higher risk expected Tuesday and likely Wednesday due
to strengthened onshore winds and increasing surf conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- High Dispersions Over Southeast Georgia Today
- High Afternoon Dispersions Wednesday And Thursday
     NEAR CRITICAL MINRH VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER
- Inland Southeast Georgia

Cold front will move southeast across the area through Tonight with
scattered showers and storms developing along the Atlantic seabreeze
this afternoon with breezy westerly winds 8-15 mph with gusts 20-25
mph. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may develop near I-95
with main impacts gusty winds 40-60 mph, small hail, lightning and
heavy downpours. Increasing transport winds and mixing heights will
create high dispersions over Southeast GA. High pressure will shift
to the northeast Wednesday with isolated showers/storms developing
along the Atlantic seabreezes over the US-17 and I-95 corridors. Dry
cold front moves through Thursday, high pressure will build overhead
Friday and Saturday. Dispersions will be in the good range despite
breezy winds due to low cloud cover, but increase Wednesday from
higher mixing heights. Drier airmass arriving on Thursday and
increasing transport winds ahead of and behind the dry cold front
will create widespread high afternoon dispersions. MinRH values will
fall to near critical levels Thursday and Friday over inland
Southeast Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog, locally dense, will
develop early this morning over inland locations. Gusty and erratic
winds expected in and near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  63  79  59 /  20  20   0   0
SSI  86  68  76  69 /  40  30  30  10
JAX  90  67  79  66 /  50  40  60  10
SGJ  90  70  81  70 /  40  40  60  30
GNV  89  67  85  66 /  30  50  60  10
OCF  89  69  86  67 /  30  30  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-
     470.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ452-
     472.

&&

$$