351
FXUS64 KJAN 161840
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
140 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected
  along with increasing thunderstorm chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Through late this week (Thursday)...

This weekend (Tonight through Sunday): The region will remain on the
western periphery of subtropical ridging to the east and mean
troughing gradually deepening over the Intermountain West to Pacific
Northwest into mid to late Sunday. With warm/moist advection
(thermal profiles at 850mb in the mid to upper teens and PWs
climbing to 1.5 to 1.9 inches), an increase in cloud coverage and
some rain chances will be possible across southwestern areas into
Sunday afternoon. Seasonable warmth is expected tonight and again
Sunday, some 4F to 8F above (lows: 58F to 62F to the east of I-55
while 63F to 68F to the west; highs: 85F to 90F). Return flow of
low level moisture will bring some fog possible in the southeast
tonight. HREF and REFS indicate some low dense fog probs (10 to
30 percent) in east-central to southeast MS. Will hold off
introduction in HWO for now.

Lapse rates and vertical totals will be sufficient (7.5 to 8 deg
C mid level lapse rates; 25C to 29C vertical totals). There is
some weak deep shear (25 to 30kts) that could support a few strong
storms in southwest MS into northeast LA on Sunday afternoon to
evening.

This week (Monday through Thursday): Cold core low, developing over
the Four Corners, will eject into the northern Plains to Great
Lakes and into Canada and Hudson Bay region. Persistent seasonable
warmth (4F to 8F above and highs in 86F to 91F) and moisture (1.5
to 2 inches) will be the norm. Summertime pattern is on tap for
the work week. Rain and storm coverage will be scattered (20 to
45 percent). Increased heat and humidity and lapse rates (vertical
totals near 27C to 29C), some strong to isolated severe cannot be
ruled out into early to mid week. As a stronger wave swings into
the Great Lakes and surface low ejects into eastern Canada (995mb
to 1000mb), front will shift south southeast towards the Gulf
states. A southern stream shortwave will enhance upper diffluence,
increasing ascent and moisture advection. This will drive
higher coverage of rain and storms (45 to 90 percent Wednesday
and 65 to 80 percent on Thursday). High temperatures will be
seasonable, with lows less seasonable, falling from 8F to 12F
above (upper 60s to low 70s west) to 4F to 8F above (mid to upper
60s). With less seasonable temperatures, humidity and lapse
rates, some stronger storms remain possible and while a few
marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. Rain totals for the
week will be around a couple of inches (1 to 3 inches), which
will help lessen some long term drought concerns. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR prevails with few clouds. Scattered high clouds will move over
the area throughout the period. IFR visibility is expected at PIB
and HBG with some fog tomorrow morning. Dense fog is less
confident but is possible. /SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  86  69  87 /   0  20   0  20
Meridian      58  87  64  88 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     66  87  70  88 /   0  30  10  20
Hattiesburg   61  86  67  88 /   0  10   0  20
Natchez       66  87  72  88 /   0  50  10  30
Greenville    68  89  72  90 /   0  20  10  10
Greenwood     65  88  70  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/SAS20