990
FXUS63 KICT 162021
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated thunderstorms possible later today and again
  Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe weather is possible with
  the strongest activity.

- Higher chances for severe weather return on Monday.

- Hot Sunday and Monday, then cooling down by Tuesday through
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict mid/upper
jet spanning from Nebraska to Lake Superior ahead of an approaching
wave positioned over the Northern Rockies. Lee troughing within the
right entrance region of the aforementioned jet has promoted a
relatively strong surface pressure gradient and subsequent gusty
south winds across the region so far today. Showers and storms are
expected to develop along a lifting warm front later this afternoon
in areas north of Interstate 70. While we could see a few storms
further south across the forecast area this afternoon and
evening, short-term model prognosis suggests limited low-level
convergence for convective initiation. However, should a storm
manage to develop, modest deep-layer shear, abundant
instability, and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg would support a
damaging wind threat. As of now, the best chances for storms lie
west of Interstate 135.

The shortwave positioned over the northwest CONUS will amplify later
tonight with increasingly meridional flow commencing over the
Central/Northern Plains by mid morning Sunday. Models suggest the
surface low should set up a bit further north and east than today,
which will place the dryline roughly along a line from Lincoln to
Great Bend off to the southwest. Convergence along the boundary
appears relatively weak at this time, though deep-layer shear just a
little bit stronger than today paired with abundant instability
within the warm sector would support large hail and damaging winds
in any storms that manage to develop. Modest large-scale ascent is
largely expected to preclude greater thunderstorm coverage.

In addition to storm potential, continued lee troughing resulting in
a tight surface pressure gradient alongside strong mixing will allow
for another day of strong south winds on Sunday. With sustained
speeds in the 25-35 mph wind and gusts up to 50 mph likely for a
majority of the area, a Wind Advisory has been issued to cover the
daytime hours. A similar setup and subsequent advisory issuance both
appear likely for Monday.

The aforementioned shortwave is forecast to translate eastward out
of the Rockies and lift as it ejects into the High/Central Plains on
Monday. Mid-range models (NAM/Euro) place the dryline setup across
southwest Kansas by afternoon and early evening with an approaching
cold front from the northwest. Convergence along the dryline may
result in thunderstorm development, and combined with strong
deep- layer shear (50-60 kts) oriented orthogonal to the
boundary alongside very high instability (> 2000 J/kg) would
support supercells capable of all hazards. However, models are
beginning to hint that the cold front will come down a bit
quicker than previously thought, which would promote more of a
messier linear storm mode through the evening hours. This
scenario would support more of a damaging wind threat for areas
west of the Flint Hills. Details continue to be refined as
additional data becomes available, so stay tuned to upcoming
forecast cycles.

Regarding temperatures, highs in the upper 80s and 90s will continue
through Monday throughout the area due to southerly winds and above
average layer thicknesses. The arrival of the cold front on Tuesday
is expected to knock temperatures back to near normal (low 70s) with
the potential for some areas to see values in the 60s by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions during the afternoon through tonight with
increasing south winds this afternoon. Low level wind shear will
increase over central/south central Kansas later tonight then
end early Sunday morning as south winds ramp up. In addition,
low clouds in MVFR category look to develop over southeast
Kansas Sunday morning as richer low level moisture streams into
the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Strong south winds, above normal temperatures, and exceptionally dry
air will result in very high fire danger for areas primarily along
and west of I-135 on Sunday, then again for portions of central
Kansas on Monday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...JWK