853
FXUS64 KHUN 110447
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1147 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 943 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

 - Low chances (30% or less) of showers overnight, primarily in NW
   AL and southern middle TN

 - Monitoring the potential for much above normal temperatures
   this weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Monday)
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

As a cold front drops southeast into the TN Valley, low rain
chances (30% or less) will be forecast overnight. No thunderstorms
are forecast as instability and lapse rates remain very low.
The current showers/thunderstorms over northern MS will erode as
they reach the AL state line due to dry air. CAMs continue to
trend drier- limiting shower activity to NW AL and southern
middle TN. Dry air present will also limit fog formation
overnight. Monday brings continued dry conditions with the front
forecast to push through during the morning hours. Lingering cloud
cover should gradually clear through the afternoon, however, high
temperatures will likely be limited to the low 70s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Post-frontal conditions are forecast to remain dry as sfc high
pressure shifts in from the northwest and remains over the TN
Valley through mid week. Highs during this time are forecast to
warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s under mostly clear skies.
Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the 50s. These
temperatures are considered seasonally normal for this time of
year. A pattern shift, however, is coming with the potential to
bring above normal temperatures back to the area (more on this in
the long term below).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Wednesday night a trough and associated sfc low will slide into the
Lower Great Lakes and the long extending cold front will be pulled
into the TN Valley. Lows will be in the lower 50s. We will be in a
postfrontal airmass on Thursday with northwesterly flow aloft as a
trough builds throughout the Plains. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 70s Thursday afternoon, with a cool night as lows reach the
upper 40s to lower 50s. The cool temps will quickly come to an end
as they will be on the rise through the weekend. Friday will have
highs around 80 degrees, and Sunday has the potential to reach 90 in
a few spots! These temps will be dependent on the evolution of the
ridge though as there is model disagreement on its amplitude,
timing and various shortwaves, so stay tuned. Regardless, be sure to
brush up on your heat safety and ensure that next weekend you know
how to stay cool and hydrated. Don`t forget: never leave people or
pets in vehicles!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the TAF
period. There is a low chance of -RA around 12Z at both terminals
yet confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RAD