189
FXUS66 KHNX 162001
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
101 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Strong wind gusts and low relative humidities in the lower
elevations of central California brings a Major Risk of Fire
Danger through the weekend.

2. Red Flag Warning in effect for the San Joaquin Valley and
West Side Hills of the Coastal Range through Monday evening. Red
Flag Warning in effect for the Mojave Desert through Sunday
evening.

3. Strong wind gusts continuing in the Mojave Desert today and
Sunday leading to a High Wind Warning for the Mojave Slopes and
Wind Advisory for the remaining desert areas.

4. Lake Wind Advisory issued for the Kern River Valley including
Lake Isabella.

5. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams, as
water are still running cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure trough is slowly pushing eastward
into the western United States this afternoon, with a strong
influence of cool, dry air approaching central California from
the northwest. As this air moves in later this afternoon,
relative humidity values will fall to or below 20 percent,
especially in the lower elevations of the region including the
San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills along the Coastal Range.
A funneling effect will also occur as the air tracks through
the Central Valley, raising sustained winds to 20 to 25 mph and
gusts approaching 30 to 35 mph. The low minimum RH values paired
with the increase in winds will result in conditions favorable
for new fires and for existing fires to quickly spread.

Sunday brings more favorable conditions than this afternoon as
the center axis of the trough tracks directly over California,
with a localized jet streak oriented from northwest-to-
southeast, channeling along the Central Valley. This will
maintain the stronger surface winds across the region,
especially Sunday afternoon and lower minRH values by a few
percentage points, especially for the north and west San Joaquin
Valley.

Downsloping winds as the upper level flow interacts with the
Tehachapi Range will result in strong wind gusts in the Mojave
Slopes and Deserts. Gusts between 65 and 70 mph have been
observed in these areas over the previous 24 hours, and the
potential for gusts of this magnitude continues through the
weekend while the upper level trough remains over the region.
MinRH values typical for this time of year in the desert areas
between 10 and 20 percent combines with the winds to bring a
threat for fast- moving grass fires to eastern Kern County as
well.

Moving into the upcoming work week, the trough is expected to
progress eastward into the Rockies, though leaving behind a
continued west-to-northwest flow across California. With a
weaker pressure gradient, winds will gradually diminish over the
area, however the dry air will remain. Warming temperatures on
Monday will pair with the dry air to cause minRH values to fall
even further on Monday: less than 15 percent for the San Joaquin
Valley and portions of the Sierra, and less than 10 percent for
the Mojave Desert. A gradual build-in of a high pressure ridge
will bring a warming trend to the region through the week, with
at least a 75 percent probability to reach 95 degrees by
Thursday. Dew point temperatures maintaining in the low 30s will
result in minRH values continuing below 15 percent for much of
the week.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusts to 25
kts will develop at the TAF sites by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As mentioned above, dry air will combine with strong wind gusts
across the San Joaquin Valley and the Mojave Desert today and
Sunday to bring a major risk for fire danger to these locations,
especially during the afternoons. Red Flag Warnings have been
issued for these areas valid through 11 PM Sun (Mojave Desert)
and 8 PM Mon (San Joaquin Valley). Low RH values will continue
through much of the upcoming week as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region. Poor overnight recoveries are
anticipated for the desert areas, and for the West Side Hills
and Tehachapi Range, though wind gusts are not expected to be as
strong as over the current period. MinRH values are favored to
improve towards next weekend, but will remain below 20 percent
for much of the lower elevations.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-339.
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ298-299.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ579-580.
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ332.
&&

$$

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