377
FXUS65 KFGZ 110452
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
952 PM MST Sun May 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures and mostly dry weather will continue
through the week. Isolated showers are possible across the higher
terrain around the middle of the week, along with slightly cooler
temperatures and enhanced southwesterly breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very dry conditions and northeast winds developed
behind the weak s/wv from Saturday. These winds are coming to an end
this afternoon as upper level support fades out, allowing for strong
solar heating for the rest of today.

High pressure amplifies over eastern Arizona for the remainder of
this weekend and into the early part of next week. This will bring
very warm temperatures through Tuesday, with little in the way of
cloud cover as the air mass stabilizes. Some mid-level CU/SC may
form as early as Tuesday, ahead of another s/wv due Wednesday.

A trough enters the Great Basin by the middle of next week. This
will enhance our winds a little bit and drop daytime temperatures.
However, this will still be a mainly dry pattern and temperatures
will still be above normal.

A more zonal, but warm and continued dry pattern then develops for
the end of next week and even the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 11/06Z through Tuesday 12/06Z...VFR conditions
with VRB winds 5-10 kts. Locally breezy winds remain downwind of the
terrain through 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 12/06Z through Thursday 14/06Z...VFR conditions.
Winds S/SW 5-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts on Tuesday, increasing
to 15-20 kts with gusts 30-35 kts on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry conditions with daytime
temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. Variable winds 5-15 mph
Monday, and S-SW 5-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH between
5-15% each day.

Wednesday through Friday...Daytime temperatures cool a few degrees
but will still remain 5 to 10 degree above average. Isolated showers
and/or dry thunderstorms will be possible across the higher terrain
on Wednesday, dry conditions expected Thursday and Friday. Winds
from SW-W 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph each day. Minimum
afternoon RH 10-20% Wednesday, 5-15% Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff