648
FXUS63 KFGF 110453
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost and freeze conditions are expected late tonight into
  Monday morning.

- There is a chance for strong wind gusts 45 mph or higher
  Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday as several fronts pass through
  the region during the daytime and evening periods.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over parts
  of the region each afternoon Monday through Friday. There is a
  30% chance for Red Flag Conditions during these periods.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Clear skies prevail this evening in most areas, with scattered
cumulus diminishing over northwest Minnesota. This clearing
should allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to lower
30s, with a few cooler spots likely around Lake of the Woods.
Winds will begin to increase overnight, especially west of the
Red River Valley, which should serve to limit the lower extent
of colder temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...Synopsis...

Deep northerly flow remains in place across the Northern Plains,
with upstream ridging amplifying over the northern Rockies in
Canada. We are still under the primary influence of the
troughing/colder northerly flow, however the pattern is starting to
break down and this trend will continue tonight through Monday as
the downstream upper low continues to move east and eventually
northwest flow builds into the region by Monday and Tuesday. A
shortwave trough is shown to pass through this flow late in the day
Monday into Monday night bringing a period of high based light
showers and isolated thunderstorms (late afternoon through Monday
night). Any activity that develops early enough may carry the risk
for strong wind gusts (50mph), however as most activity is favored
closer to sunset or later this threat is lower. Due to the amount of
dry air ahead of this system, and limited moisture advection with
it, potential rain totals will be minimal (generally 0.1" or less).
A progressive pattern with increased heights is expected through the
rest of the week into next weekend, resulting in increasing
temperatures (above average), deeper moisture return (higher rain
total potential where rain/thunderstorms to develop), and periodic
shortwave trough passages. These bring low rain/thunderstorm chances
(high spread in ensembles on location/coverage) and periods of windy
conditions/fire weather impacts (frontal timing dependent). Long
story short: After tonight it is looking like we are finally
transitioning into a more consistent "Spring-like" pattern.


...Frost/freeze impacts late tonight/Monday morning...

A Freeze Warning was issued for most of northwest MN where
probabilities for widespread subfreezing temperatures exceed 80%
(NBM/LREF), with lowest values in colder areas reaching the mid 20s.
The position of the cold pool will be shifting east, however surface
ridging will be centered over north central MN and calm winds/clear
skies will set the stage for ideal radiational conditions in these
areas.

A Frost Advisory was issued for eastern ND and the southern Red
River Valley of west central MN. The recover of the air mass through
the night occurs west to east, and as low pressure builds to the
west southeast winds increase creating more uncertainty in
widespread freeze impacts Monday morning and the potential for
lowest temperatures in the west to actually fall shortly after
midnight in the Devils Lake Basin. Even where winds increase, 2m
temperatures should fall below 36F for at least a period of the
morning hours and sheltered locations would likely fall to near 32F
with frost impacts. In the northern Red River Valley of ND winds may
be delayed long enough that subfreezing temperatures occur outside
of just sheltered areas, and NBM shows a 50% chance for these
conditions as far south as Grand Forks County, though the duration
of these impacts if they occur would be limited as winds do increase
after 4AM even in those areas.


...Strong winds this week...

Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday all feature signals for elevated winds
as shortwave troughs and associated cold frontal passages through
the region. Model mixed layer winds Monday show a brief period of
near advisory gusts (around 45mph) with the immediate frontal
passage, and the short duration/marginal nature may limit impacts.
Tuesday in particular stands out, with ECMWF EFI values 0.8 across
almost our entire CWA, which often correlates with the potential for
High Wind Warning impacts. NBM probabilities are generally lower for
gusts 58mph+ (40% or less). The signal Thursday isn`t as strong
regarding EFI, however NBM probabilities highlight similar
probabilities as Tuesday. At this point probabilities are not high
enough for considering Wind Advisories or High Wind Watch products,
and the progressive nature of these waves naturally creates
increased uncertainty regarding smaller scale details and impacts.

...Fire weather impacts this week...

The inherent uncertainty with the periods of strong wind/frontal
passages also results in increased uncertainty on timing/location of
lowest RH values in relation to the timing of stronger winds that
could result in critical fire weather conditions/Red Flag Conditions.
Much drier mixed layer Tds are initially in place through Monday,
however as the front approaches mixed layer Tds are shown to
increase near the prefrontal trough. There is still a window in our
far east/north central MN counties where RH values may fall to 25%
or less, however this is ahead of the stronger mixed layer winds.
Near critical fire weather conditions appear more likely at this
point Monday afternoon for those counties. RH values become much
less certain through the week (especially towards the end of the
week) as deeper moisture return favors increased mixed layer Tds
(even if there is deeper mixing), only offset by the potential for
higher temperatures in the 70s and 80s (outside signal for values
near 90 in the souther RRV Thursday). As we get closer to the
periods when shorter range guidance starts better resolving smaller
scale features/frontal timing we should be able to get a better
handle on periods when Red Flag conditions may occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Ceilings will be VFR throughout the TAF period, but strong
southerly winds will bring aviation impacts on Monday. The
strongest period of winds will be from late Monday morning
throughout the afternoon, into the early evening. During this
time, gusts will exceed 30 knots at KGFK, KFAR and KDVL. Towards
the very end of the TAF period, showers and thunderstorms may
skirt near northern terminals. Probabilities were too low to add
any mention into the TAFs at this time, but future iterations
may need to add some sort of mention, either in the form of
PROB30s or TEMPOs. Also worth mentioning - blowing dust is a
possibility tomorrow afternoon at KFAR and KGFK. This also
seems to be a low predictability/probability occurrence, with a
worst case scenario being visibility dropping down into the
upper tier of MVFR (5SM). This was not added into the TAFs, but
it will be worth monitoring Monday afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ001-002-004>009-
     013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ003-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Rafferty