083
FXUS62 KFFC 110536
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
136 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the daytime on
  Monday. Highest chances generally in central Georgia and on
  Monday with a weak cold front. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of
  5) is in effect across portions of central GA with an isolated
  damaging wind gust the main threat.

- Weak cold front brings dry and cool conditions Monday evening
  through mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

A longwave trough at the mid and upper levels is extending from
south-central Canada towards the ArkLaTex as the period. A weak
disturbance traversing the WSW flow ahead of the trough axis has
cleared Georgia to the east, with dry mid-level air and surface high
pressure overspreading the northern part of the state. The
combination of these factors has scattered out cloud cover and led
to mostly clear skies across the area. Temperatures this afternoon
are forecast to rise into the low to mid 80s (with mid to upper 70s
in the far northeast mountains). A dissipating frontal boundary
remains stalled across the Florida Panhandle. A few showers and
thunderstorms have developed along this feature and are being
carried ENE along the sea breeze, though the chance of an isolated
storm meandering into central Georgia appears increasingly unlikely
through the afternoon. Furthermore, with large-scale ascent and
surface-based instability looking weaker than previous forecasts,
PoPs have been limited to about 15% in the far southern tier of
counties and are even lower to the north.

As the trough axis continues to approach, a cold front will advance
into northwest Georgia tonight. With a relatively dry airmass
(dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s) due to the flow from the
Gulf being cut off from the stationary front, showers ahead of the
cold front will initially be isolated and light. By mid-morning on
Monday, as the front works its way south of I-85, it will encounter
warmer, more humid air, with dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures
once again rising into the 80s. The interaction between the front
and a mid level vort max will develop a weak surface low in central
Georgia within the front in the afternoon, which will contribute
increased deep layer ascent. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will increase accordingly, with PoPs of 25-40% to the south of the
front. With strengthening surface-based CAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg in
areas south of Columbus and Macon, a few storms could become strong,
capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Precipitation ahead of the front will come to an end on Monday night
as the cold front clears the forecast area to the south. In the wake
of the front, cooler and drier air will filter in from the north
during the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Rain should clear the area Monday night and high pressure will
settle in behind it. Cooler conditions will linger through next
Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s with lows in the mid 40s and low
50s. Temps will heat up late next week as temps climb back into the
low to mid 80s. The rest of the week should be rain free, as the
ridge continues to build.

Dry conditions towards the end of the week may bring back some fire
weather concerns, though most of the state has received enough rain
to reduce some of the risk that we were facing a few weeks back.
Regardless, please continue to monitor the Fire Weather Forecast as
we approach the middle of the week for potential critical fire
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Mostly VFR conditions through period. Spot shra to -tsra psbl
through 00z south of metro. Cannot rule out brief sprinkle at ATL.
Winds NW at 5 to 10 kts turn to NE overnight at 2 to 7kts. Brief
sct MVFR to IFR cigs psbl Monday night at PDK and ATL.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence precip coverage today and cigs tonight.
High confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          56  77  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
Atlanta         59  78  58  81 /   0   0  10  20
Blairsville     47  73  50  74 /   0   0  10  30
Cartersville    52  79  54  81 /   0   0  10  20
Columbus        60  81  58  84 /  10   0   0  10
Gainesville     56  75  56  79 /  10   0  10  20
Macon           59  79  56  83 /  10   0   0  20
Rome            51  79  53  81 /   0   0  10  10
Peachtree City  56  79  55  82 /   0   0  10  20
Vidalia         62  80  58  84 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...SM