385
FXUS64 KEWX 110340
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1040 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of strong to severe storms likely this evening into tonight.

- Seasonably warm temperatures and dry weather expected Monday and
  the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

We canceled some of the counties from the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch including the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
Plains. Also, added Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca counties in
addition to extending the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to 2 AM CDT
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move northwest
to southeast across most of South-Central Texas this evening into
tonight. The primary severe threat posed by these storms is
damaging wind, with a more isolated potential for large hail and
locally heavy rain. Strong lines of storms can produce wide swaths
of gusts of 50-60 mph with stronger pockets of gusts near and
above 75 mph possible. Frequent lightning is also likely. The
severe risk is expected to be highest when storms first enter the
Hill Country and Austin area earlier in the evening, and the SPC
has highlighted a Level 3 of 5 (Enhanced) risk of severe weather
for these areas primarily due to the strong wind concerns. Storms
should remain strong to severe as they move farther south with a
continued threat for strong winds and locally heavy rain, but the
severe risk is expected to gradually decline later in the night.

An upper-level shortwave trough currently diving southeast over
the Rockies and an accompanying cold front will provide the lift
to trigger widespread thunderstorms this evening. This front is
already moving across North Texas as of early afternoon Sunday and
will be encroaching upon our area soon. There is a low to medium
chance of a few isolated thunderstorms developing earlier in the
day (with mainly a lightning, gusty wind, and small hail threat),
mainly over the Coastal Plains, in the late afternoon and early
evening. The dry- line should also push slightly eastward into Val
Verde County ahead of the approaching front and may itself be a
trigger for some isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon over
the southern Edwards Plateau, but the cold front will produce the
majority of the storm and severe activity. Most models indicate
an initial arrival of storms in the Hill Country near or just
after sunset, starting by about 7 PM, reaching the I-35 corridor
over the following hours and moving across the Coastal Plains
closer to midnight. It is worth noting that storms of this variety
with conditions favoring a wind- driven line of storms can often
accelerate in forward speed during their development, so it is
plausible that storm arrival could be a few hours earlier than the
model consensus. In general, the focus is this evening. The
greatest chances for severe weather for any particular location
will likely be in the first 1-2 hours of storm onset. Stay indoors
and have multiple ways to receive weather information.

The highest likelihood for stormy weather and a more contiguous
line of storms is generally over the Hill Country, I-35 corridor,
and Coastal Plains, where the forward momentum of these storms is
expected to be greatest. There is some uncertainty over the
western extent of the line of storms over the Rio Grande Plains
and areas west of US-83, but overall storm activity is still
likely to be at least scattered in those areas with isolated
severe potential. This evening`s storms will likely be moving
briskly, keeping regional rain totals mostly in the 0.5-1 inch
range. However, a few pockets of heavier downpours could produce
isolated and locally higher totals in the 2-4 inch range.

Once the main line of storms and cold front passes, residual
lightning and light rain from the trailing stratiform cloud deck
may continue for a few hours, but will subside with the entirety
of South-Central Texas dry by sunrise on Monday. Light northerly
winds throughout the day will keep temperatures in check, though
temperatures should still warm into the upper 70s (with the most
moderated temperatures in the Hill Country and Austin area) to mid
80s (with the warmest temperatures in the Rio Grande Plains)
under mostly sunny conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Dry and warm weather is expected to continue for much of the week
as a ridge builds overhead and maintains strength. Widespread
highs in the 90s are expected by Thursday and Friday, continuing
into the weekend. The last few afternoons of the week are forecast
to be breezy as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the
Plains. Rain chances stay near-zero for the entire work week, but
some rain potential may start to reenter the picture early next
week as the ridge weakens and a few upper-level disturbances start
to impinge on our area within largely zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms associated with a cold
front is forecast to push across the area terminals this
evening/night period. Storms are forecast to affect the KDRT first
between 01Z through 03Z Monday, then KAUS from 02Z through 04Z
Monday, and for KSAT/KSSF between 03Z and 05Z Monday. Several
hires models show the line of storms bowing through this
evening/night with the potential for strong wind gusts of 35 knots
to 45 knots. Also, large hail is possible with stronger storms.
In addition, heavy rain and strong wind gusts could bring
visibilities to 2 miles. The storms are forecast to quickly move
to the south and into the Coastal Plains after midnight tonight.
The winds decrease overnight, however, stay around the 8 to 10
knots. MVFR cigs are forecast middle of the overnight period
through late Monday morning with VFR conditions returning for the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  80  65  85 /  90  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  80  65  85 /  90  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  82  64  85 /  90   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  77  61  82 / 100  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  84  66  87 /  50  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  78  63  83 / 100  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  83  63  87 /  80   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  81  64  85 /  90  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  80  65  83 /  90  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  83  65  87 /  80   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  84  66  87 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17