852
FXUS63 KEAX 110341
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1041 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* General warming trend ahead.
  - Warmth/heat peaks on Tuesday and Friday
  - Touching 90 possible Tue and Fri into weekend


* Limited appreciable precipitation chances
  - Tuesday as cold front drops in (<20% north, up to 40% south)
  - Late week into weekend, but highly uncertain

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A largely quiet and pleasant Mother`s Day across the area today.
Surface high pressure has kept winds on the lighter side, generally
northerly in direction. Aloft, some higher level cloud cover
associated with passing shortwaves within the broader NW flow. All
coupled with the cold frontal passage yesterday and overnight,
temperatures are notably cooler with many currently in the 60s and
within a couple degrees of forecast highs.

The week ahead will be highlighted by generally warming temperatures
and limited precipitation opportunities. This will get kicked off as
a large area of surface high pressure drifts eastward tonight into
Monday, spread across the Great Lakes and back through the lower
Mississippi River Valley. This will turn winds more southwesterly
and remain in place through Tuesday. Coupled with height
rises/ridging within the broader NW mid-upper level flow,
temperatures quickly rise back above normal with forecast highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s and 80s respectively Monday and Tuesday.
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the first half of the week as a
cold front will drop through the area and will also provide the area
with its next chance for any precipitation. Synoptic and ensemble
guidance remain in good agreement on the northern stream shortwave
trough that will move across the Southern Canadian Plains and into
the Great Lakes Region late Monday into Tuesday. Given the northern
displacement of the best mid-upper level lift and the accompanying
surface low, shower/storm chances locally will tend to rely on the
surface front itself. Some better agreement on the environment ahead
of the front, yielding to around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE concurrent with 30-
40+ kts of deep shear (notably unidirectional). While much of the
area will be strongly capped, noted weaknesses in capping among the
suites with a narrow moisture plume ahead of the front. Some
question to how far down the line convection goes with
deterministic showing the area within a surface pressure "saddle
point" leading to some question on just how much convergence/lift
into the front, aside from the front itself. Trend too has been to
slow this down a little, placing the front into NW Missouri by the
early afternoon/18z Tuesday. Main risks would be large hail and
strong/damaging winds. Agree with the 1930z SPC Day 3 update
bringing the Marginal a bit further north, now covering a majority
of the area.

Briefly `cooler` Wednesday/Thursday behind the Tuesday cold front.
Cooler being used lightly with anticipated difference only a handful
of degrees cooler. During this time frame, Great Lakes mid-upper
troughing translates eastward while a cutoff low drops down along
the PNW and California Coasts. In between, this will allow ridging
and 850mb temps into the teens deg C to move into and across the
central CONUS. And while the pattern is expected flatten Friday into
the weekend, 850mb temps remain depicted in the low to mid teens deg
C. Most notable result of all this will be increasing temperatures
late week into the weekend, including the potential (if not likely)
rise into the 90s. There remains a lot of uncertainty with regards
to temperatures here though. As of the 12z runs, Canadian ensemble
is notably warmer than the GFS and Euro ensembles. This is at least
in part due to their varied handling of the western CONUS cutoff
low/trough and shortwave(s) strength/timing. NBM too has continued
to come in "hot" compared to GFS/Euro and even the Canadian. New
forecast package has low 90s Friday into the weekend, notably down
from mid 90s in previous forecast cycle, after collaboration with
other offices and WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Clear conditions with southwesterly surface winds are expected
to prevail over the next 24 hours, allowing for quiet, VFR
conditions at all four terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Macko