254
FXUS63 KDVN 110533
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1233 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory in effect across the north for tonight with
  lows in the mid/upper 30s anticipated.

- A clipper-like system late Monday night into Tuesday morning
  is forecast to bring scattered (30-60%) showers and
  thunderstorms to the region.

- Warm up expected late week with temperatures reaching into the
  80s by Friday as the next storm system approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A broad area of high pressure will remain over the Upper
Mississippi Valley region through tonight, with an upper level
trough axis expected to shift to the east through the Great
Lakes. A dry air mass in place with dewpoints in the 30s and
20s, combined with periods of clear skies, will allow
temperatures to drop into the 40s and 30s for lows tonight. The
coldest temperatures are expected in the counties along the
Highway 20 corridor, where mid 30s are possible. Confidence
remains low on potential for widespread frost due to the
expectation for marginally cool temps in the mid/upper 30s and
potential for NE winds to hold around 10 mph at times through
the overnight. However, decided to issue a Frost Advisory for
the northern tier of counties where lows in the mid 30s are most
likely. Temperatures early this morning were several degrees
below most model guidance, so potential is there for a repeat
scenario again tonight given the dry air mass; went a few
degrees below the latest NBM for lows with mid/upper 30s north
and low to mid 40s roughly I-80 and south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Monday...As the longwave trough over the Great Lakes and high
pressure over Wisconsin slide to the east, ridging builds in
over the CWA. Large-scale subsidence on Monday will provide
mostly sunny skies with highs in the 60s north of I-80 and 70s
south. This is not expected to last long as a developing 850-700
mb f-gen band will push clouds in from north Monday night.

Tuesday...A clipper-like system over northern Minnesota is
forecasted to propagate into Wisconsin as the next shortwave
trough in south-central Canada dives into the Northern Plains. A
band of light stratiform rain will develop across northeast
Iowa and northern Illinois associated with the f-gen previously
mentioned. Dry air in the low levels should limit overall QPF.
Regardless of precipitation though, winds will be gusty Tuesday
afternoon as the cold front moves through the region with gusts
between 30 to 40 mph possible as southwesterly flow gradually
turns to the west/northwest. Skies should clear out Tuesday
night as CAA and ageostrophic convergence aloft on the backside
of the passing trough sets in.

Wednesday through Thursday afternoon...Another longwave ridge
builds in from the west Wednesday and a high pressure anchors to
our north. Highs will be seasonable in the mid-60s to mid-70s
with light northerly winds. Things start to shake up on Thursday
when the next trough over the northern Rockies kicks the high
pressure to the east, shifting the winds to southerly once
again.

Thursday night through Saturday...The trough over the northern
Rockies moves into the Northern Plains, deepening a low pressure
center over Dakotas Thursday night. This strengthens the
1000-700 mb mean flow to 20-30 knots out of the south- southwest
which advects in much needed moisture into the region with
PWATs increasing over 0.5 inch overnight Thursday. The
approaching cold front will be the focal point of convection
Friday. While it is too far out to determine the severity of
these storms, the latest ENS run shows a 20-50% chance of MUCAPE
exceeding 1000 J/kg across the CWA.

The cold front swings through Friday night into Saturday morning as
the shortwave becomes negatively tilted over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. Dry and cold air advection will clear out the
precipitation from west to east, but the exact timing is
uncertain as there is disagreement among the GEFS and ENS
members on the propagation speed and track of this low pressure
system. Nevertheless, highs in 80s on Friday are becoming
increasingly likely while Saturday will be dependent on the
timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Mostly clear
skies forecasted through Monday evening before SCT to BKN
cirrus enter in from the north. Winds will be light and variable
through sunset on Monday as high pressure anchors over the
region. This is expected to change starting Monday evening as a
low pressure system approaches, shifting the winds out of the
southeast as they pick up overnight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ040>042.
IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ001-002.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Delaune/Uttech
AVIATION...Delaune