451
FXUS63 KDLH 110544
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1244 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly sunny tomorrow with very dry conditions expected again.
  Lighter winds will be on tap but with the lack of recent rains
  will lead to near-critical fire weather conditions again.

- Rain and storm chances (50-70%) Monday night and Tuesday and
  again on Thursday (20-30%).

- Cooler conditions continue with a warming trend coming later
  in the week with highs climbing into the 70s and 80s by
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Quiet Pattern This Weekend and Monday:

Surface high pressure is nudging in from the Canadian Prairies
today with northwest winds still streaming across the surface.
Cyclonic flow aloft mixed with below freezing 850 temperatures
managed to generate some isolated snow showers across far
northern MN this morning with some lingering light rain and
sprinkles possible through the afternoon. Overall, most of the
region can expect another relatively cool and dry day with
diurnally driven cumulus populating in the afternoon. Overnight,
the high pressure will move directly overhead leading to calm
winds and clear skies. Rapid radiational cooling is expected
with low temperatures for Monday morning expected to be in the
20s.

Monday surface high pressure transitions over towards the Great
Lakes which will allow southerly winds to return to the
Northland. A warm front will start to advance in from the west
but current guidance doesn`t have the boundary moving into our
CWA until late Monday. Still, the southerly winds will help to
warm the region back into the 50s and 60s. Model soundings still
show quite a bit of dry air up through the mid levels with high
clouds starting to roll in ahead of the next weather system.
Min RHs may drop as low as 15% in areas that remain cloud free.
Fortunately enhanced winds are not expected to coincide with
these very dry conditions.

Next chance for Rain Tuesday:

Early Tuesday morning an upper level trough digs across
southern Manitoba with a pair of surface lows expected to move
across the Upper Midwest. A warm front propelled by a strong low
level jet will cross through the Northland bringing rain
chances of 50-70% across the region. Weak MUCAPE will accompany
these showers which may induce some embedded thunderstorms.
Pockets of steep mid level lapse rates could lead to small hail
with any more robust cells that develop.

Both the Euro and GFS are starting to lean towards
strengthening the surface low moving over central MN and having
it in the vicinity of NW WI by Tuesday afternoon. This could
introduce some surface based instability for NW WI as a cold
front swings through increasing the chances for stronger storms.
However, low track and placement remain inconsistent between
models runs so confidence remains low at this time.

Midweek-End of the Work Week:

Cool high pressure briefly sets up for Wednesday leading to a
quiet day with highs in the 50s and 60s. An upper level ridge
axis will push past the region for the latter part of the work
week which will allow for warmer temperatures to return. Highs
will climb into the 70s with some areas seeing 80s by Friday.
The influx of warmer air and southwest flow will also prompt
some increased rain and thunderstorm potential. The 12Z suite of
deterministic guidance is suggesting a return of a low level
jet as a low pressure system moves out of the Northern Plains
late Thursday. For now, we are carrying a 20-30% chance for
showers and to round out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. Cloud cover near INL
and HIB is expected to move off to the east in the next hour or
two. Clear skies are expected to continue ahead of a system that
will bring cloud cover Monday evening and chances for showers
and storms Monday night into Tuesday. Calm winds tonight will
increase in the morning out of the southwest, but should still
remain below 10 kts until Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Northwest winds continue to stream across the lake with speeds
around 5 to 10 kts. High pressure moves over the Lake tomorrow
providing variable wind directions. Tuesday morning southeast
winds will meet the North Shore and could build some wave
heights of 3-4 ft for a brief time before winds start to turn.
Westerly winds will filter in Tuesday afternoon and slowly
overtake the Lake. Additionally, rain and storm chances return
Monday night and persist through Tuesday across Western Lake
Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Dense cloud cover this afternoon with some rain/snow showers
across the Arrowhead has drastically decreased the fire weather
threat for today. Satellite does show some clearing over the
Brainerd Lakes Region but Min RHs are not expected to drop below
25%. Wind gusts are weaker than yesterday with the top end
around 20 mph this afternoon.

High pressure moves in overnight leading to clear skies and a
very dry Monday. High clouds will start to spill in from the
west but we still expect Min RHs to fall into the low 20s. If
cloud cover is slow to arrive we could see those fall even lower
into the teens. High pressure will be departing to the east
through the day with southerly winds filtering in, gusts in the
afternoon will be in the low teens.

Rain returns Monday night and through Tuesday as a system moves
out of the Northern Plains. Not expecting a soaking rain with
most locations expected to max out near 0.10" The better rain
totals still look to be focused across the Arrowhead where we
still have QPF totals of 0.25-0.50" There will be some embedded
thunderstorms which may lead to some localized heavier rates at
times.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt