Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
326 FXUS64 KCRP 110606 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 106 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 - Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of South Texas in effect through 5 AM. - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of flash flooding through 7 AM. - Seasonal temperatures and drier conditions this week in the wake of the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 A mid-level shortwave diving southeast, in conjunction with a southward-moving cold front has led to a threat for strong to severe storms late tonight into early Monday morning. At time of writing (11:30 pm), a QLCS extends from San Antonio to just south of Eagle Pass. Damaging wind gusts have already been reported, with isolated gusts up to 75 mph in the strongest bowing segments. Hail has also been recorded, but with the convection looking to become outflow dominant, confidence in large hail is quickly diminishing. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect through 5 AM. In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible into early Monday morning. PWATs remain above the 75th percentile for early May, with values near or just above 1.60 inches, which supports decent rainfall production. WPC continues to maintain a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across portions of South Texas. While the progressive nature of the convective line should limit the overall flash flood threat, isolated higher rainfall totals will remain possible, particularly for portions of the western Brush Country and adjacent inland areas. Conditions are expected to improve rapidly after sunrise this morning as the cold front pushes offshore and drier air filters into the region. North-northeasterly winds and weak CAA will keep temperatures on the mild side today and Tuesday, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Dry and warm conditions are then expected through the remainder of the work week as ridging strengthens over the Southern Plains and western Gulf Coast. Rain chances will remain below 10% through at least Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 A line of strong thunderstorms has begun to push into South Texas, with thunderstorms ongoing at COT. Wind gusts around 40 knots have been measured, but there could be some areas with stronger gusts with these storms. This line will continue to move to the south/southeast tonight, reaching LRD around 07Z and CRP around 08Z. Have included TEMPO groups for thunderstorms with strong and variable winds and MVFR ceilings/visibility for all terminals tonight and early morning hours. IFR conditions could be possible in and around these thunderstorms, but have not included this in the TAF. Conditions will quickly improve to VFR behind this line of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected into tomorrow morning ahead and along a cold front. Some storms could be severe, with strong winds as the primary threat. In the wake of the front, moderate (BF 4) winds will turn to the north-northeast, eventually relaxing to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) by Monday night. Onshore winds return by midweek, with little in the way of precipitation expected through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 86 71 85 71 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 86 67 87 66 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 87 71 89 72 / 20 0 0 0 Alice 87 69 88 68 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 88 72 86 74 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 86 68 89 69 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 86 70 86 69 / 20 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 84 74 82 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...LS/77