247
FXUS62 KCHS 161835
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
235 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Minor coastal flooding expected along portions of the
  southeast South Carolina coast with the evening high tide
  cycles into early next week.

- 2) Mostly dry conditions expected into early next week with
  above normal temperatures. Increasing rain chances to occur
  late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding expected along portions of the
southeast South Carolina coast with the evening high tide cycles
into early next week.

Astronomical influences associated with the new moon (5/16) and
lunar perigee (5/17) along with a modest southeasterly onshore flow
will help drive elevated tide levels through the weekend, leading
to minor coastal flooding along the southeast South Carolina and
southeast Georgia coast. The highest chance for minor coastal
flooding will be at the Charleston Harbor tide gage, while a much
lower potential exists at Fort Pulaski. The latest forecast advertises
peak evening high tides around 7.2-7.3 ft MLLW for this evening
and Sunday evening high tide cycles for the Charleston Harbor.
A Coastal Flood Advisory has therefore been issued for Coastal
Colleton and Charleston Counties between 7 PM to 11 PM this evening.
Additional Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed through
the weekend, and possibly into Monday. Astronomical tide levels
will then begin to fall early next week and the potential for
minor coastal flooding will diminish.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mostly dry conditions expected into early next week
with above normal temperatures. Increasing rain chances to occur
late next week.

Surface high pressure will extend across the Southeast through the
middle of next week, with ridging building aloft. There could be
isolated diurnal convection Sunday, but most locations will likely
stay dry due to limited coverage. Temperatures will be warmer than
normal. Highs will average in the 85-90F range away from the
immediate coast, with mild overnight lows.

There will be better chances for showers and thunderstorms during
the latter half of next week. While there is still spread between
models, consensus indicates shortwave energy crossing the region
with a surface cold front approaching and possibly stalling
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 18Z
Sunday. However, gusty winds (15-18 kt) will accompany an afternoon
sea breeze today.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: A weak/subtle coastal trough along the western
periphery of high pressure centered across the Atlantic will result
in a southerly wind regime across local waters for the remainder of
the day and through the night, with with speeds generally less than
10-15 kt (except in the Charleston Harbor this afternoon). Seas will
range between 1-3 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: No marine concerns are expected. High
pressure to the east will drive onshore southeasterly flow each day,
with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each
afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along
the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas should
average 2-3 feet through the period.

Rip Currents: The combination of influences from the upcoming new
moon cycle and persistent onshore flow will produce an elevated risk
of rip currents into early next week. A Moderate Risk of rip
currents is in effect at all southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia beaches Sunday and Monday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ149-150.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

BRS/DPB