433
FXUS61 KBUF 190701
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
301 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summer-like heat continues today.

2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into
tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe
limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and
tonight).

3) Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold
front for the middle and later half of the work week, before the
potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat continues today.

Mid and upper level heights will start to fall today as the mid and
upper level ridge axis slides east of the area. NBM max temperature
output continues to be too warm. Looking at Monday`s high
temperatures, NBM forecast highs averaged 3-5 degrees F too warm.
NBM again looks too warm today. In fact, NBM high temperature output
is right near the top of the chart, nearing the 90th percentile
amongst all other guidance. With that in mind and in coordination
with surrounding offices as has been done over the past several
days, daytime highs were lowered a couple to few degrees again
today. Highs are expected to top out mainly in the mid and upper
80s, with a run at 90 again for those traditionally warmer
locations, while it will remain a bit cooler along and closer to the
lakeshores.

Winds will continue to ramp up through the day with gusts 20-30 mph
areawide this afternoon and up to 35 mph, or even a few gusts to 40
mph northeast of Lake Erie, especially a bit further from the lake
away from the cool dome over and closer to the lakeshore.

A few scattered showers and storms will be possible during the peak
heating hours this afternoon, and would mainly be confined to areas
along and inland of any lake breeze circulations. Some gusty winds
are possible with a stronger storm or two, however overall severe
potential through this afternoon remains low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very
late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to
reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for
late today and tonight).

Confidence for a few strong to severe storms continues to moderate
for late today through the early overnight hours just ahead of a
strong cold front approaching from the west. CAPE values of 1000-
2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening) with 25-35 knots of 0-
6km shear will foster the potential for damaging wind gusts, which
will be the greatest threat. Local BUFKIT soundings continue to
advertise "fat" CAPE profiles, which supports stronger updraft
potential, indicating the possibility for large hail as well.
Finally, 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2 (300-400 m^2/s^2 far
western NY) support the chance for an isolated tornado or two. SPC
has all of western and northcentral NY outlined in a Slight Risk for
scattered severe storms during this period. The best window for
severe storms will be 6-7 PM this evening through 1-2 AM tonight.
With that timing comes the gradual loss of diurnal heating heading
through the evening. This leads to some uncertainty as to whether or
not the line can maintain its` intensity, especially by later in the
evening. Current thinking is the line will maintain intensity as it
nears or enters far western NY early this evening, then gradually
weakens as it heads further east into our area as heating wanes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake
of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week,
before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday
weekend.

A large area of high pressure will build into our region in the wake
of the cold frontal passage, bringing a mainly dry, but much cooler
airmass back in across the area for the middle and later half of the
week. Coolest day will be Thursday, with many locations not getting
out of the 50s. Expect a slow rebound in temperatures into the
holiday weekend with mainly 60s across the area, however an area of
low pressure approaching from the southwest may bring unsettled
weather back into our region for at least a portion of this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found, and these
conditions will be predominate through the TAF cycle. There will
be a few exceptions.

A consistent flow of 35 to 45 knots off the deck will bring limited
LLWS concerns, as well as gusty winds later this morning through the
afternoon, especially northeast of the Lakes where gusts may reach
30 to 35 knots.

With a wealth of instability, there may be an inland lake breeze
shower or thunderstorm this afternoon.

The main concern during this TAF period will come in the final six
hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into
far western NY around 00Z this evening ahead of a strong cold front.
A few storms will have the potential to produce strong winds and
large hail. Expect localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any
of the stronger storms. Widespread IFR/MVFR is then expected for the
second half of tonight along and just behind the cold front.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Improving to VFR.

Thursday through Friday...VFR.

Saturday...Potential for sub-VFR with as a low pressure system
brings rain to the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and ahead of an
approaching cold front will continue to gradually tighten through
today.

Winds will increase further this afternoon ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, supporting winds and waves worthy of
Small Craft Advisory criteria on the western end of Lake Ontario by
this afternoon, before spreading toward the eastern end of Lake
Ontario late tonight through Wednesday with the passage of the cold
front. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong
enough to produce a moderate chop today through Wednesday.

Additionally, just ahead of the cold frontal passage this evening
into tonight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass
across the lakes producing locally higher winds and waves, with a
possibility of large hail.

Winds will then relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...EAJ/JM