904
FXUS64 KBMX 190611
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
111 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 108 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026

- Warm conditions are expected again on Tuesday with highs near 90
  degrees.

- Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesday night into
  Wednesday and continue through the weekend, with the highest
  (40-70%) chances in northern and western portions of Central
  Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

- High moisture levels will support periods of heavy rain, though
  total amounts are anticipated to be light (1 to 2 inches across
  the area).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026

Over the last few hours, we have been watching a few
thunderstorms work up the I-65 corridor. A H7 shortwave has been
helping guide this activity within a plume of healthy moisture
advecting north across the state. These storms are likely to wane
over the next hour or two. While chances are low (20-30%), I
wouldn`t be surprised to see patchy fog develop late tonight,
especially in locations that saw rain this afternoon and evening.

As we head through the day Tuesday, the upper ridge off to our
east will begin to be suppressed as a stout upper trough slides
across the Plains. An associated cold front will slowly move
towards the southeast, eventually stalling just off to our west.
Convection is likely to develop along and ahead of the boundary
through the day Tuesday. Latest CAMs continue to hint at this
activity decaying before making it into Central Alabama. We will
need to monitor trends and any lingering outflow boundaries that
may keep this activity going a bit longer and making it into our
northwest counties.

We will hang onto low to moderate chances for showers and storms
daily Wednesday through the end of the week as several shortwaves
traverse through the southwesterly flow aloft and interact with
the stalled boundary. PWATs will remain elevated through the end
of the week, generally in the 1.7-1.9" range which will help
support periods of heavy rainfall. Despite the prolonged period
of increased rain chances, rainfall amounts are not too
impressive, roughly 1-2" across the area. While widespread severe
storms are not expected, we could see a few stronger storms
develop as we reach peak heating each afternoon.  By the weekend,
the stalled front retreats back to the north, leaving plentiful
moisture in place. Continued bouts of upper level energy will
keep moderate rain chances in the forecast.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period.
Convection has tapered off for the night. Residual moisture from
the evening`s rains will result in a low probability for patchy
fog. Will leave out of the TAFs for now, but will be monitoring
trends for any potential amendments. Otherwise, light and
variable winds overnight will become south to southeast 5-10kts
with mixing during the day Tuesday. Rain chances return Tuesday
evening in the west to give a low probability at TCL for rain.
Will leave out for now from TCL terminal. Chances are better
during the day Wednesday.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are in store for much of the day Tuesday with
minRHs in the 40-50% range during the afternoon. Rain chances
increase late Tuesday into Wednesday and continue into the
weekend as a front stalls near the region, with higher Min RH
values. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  65  87  64 /   0   0  70  50
Anniston    88  65  87  64 /  10   0  50  30
Birmingham  89  70  87  67 /   0  10  60  50
Tuscaloosa  90  69  88  67 /   0  20  40  40
Calera      90  67  89  66 /   0  10  40  50
Auburn      89  69  89  67 /   0   0  30  10
Montgomery  90  69  89  68 /   0  10  20  20
Troy        90  68  89  67 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...08