750
FXUS61 KBGM 161908
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
308 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made with this forecast
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few showers and thunderstorms are possible into this
evening; otherwise, a strengthening ridge of high pressure will
be the main feature in the coming days leading to above average
temperatures through the middle of next week.

2) A cold front will bring the potential for stronger
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler conditions
to wrap up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Sunshine will be giving way to increasing clouds later this
afternoon and evening as scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms along and ahead of a frontal boundary push east.
These showers and thunderstorms will move into a fairly dry
environment (dew points were lowered from the NBM into this
evening given current obs were a good 4 to 8 degrees lower than
projected), and are expected to diminish in coverage and
intensity, especially east of I-81. Showers are expected to
taper off by about midnight tonight.

A general westerly flow tomorrow will become southwesterly
tomorrow night into early next week as surface high pressure
becomes anchored around Bermuda and an upper level ridge
centered off the Southeast Coast strengthens and builds
northward leading to strong warm air advection and increasing
dew points, giving us a taste of summer-like conditions,
especially Monday and Tuesday. While there will be a bit of a
temperature gradient tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 70s
across CNY, and upper 70s to mid 80s from the Twin Tiers south,
highs Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 80s to
near or even into the low 90s area-wide. NBM guidance continues
to look too warm compared to nearly all model guidance, so the
trend to lower temperatures a few degrees was continued, but it
still keeps highs just above most guidance given the synoptic
set up. There is also some concern regarding the potential for
scattered clouds and isolated showers or thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday as a couple of weak waves
embedded in the flow around the ridge approach, which could
result in high temperatures being held back slightly.

As mentioned, dew points will be on the rise, reaching the low
to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday, with some spots even reaching the
upper 60s Tuesday afternoon, so the humidity will be
noticeable. Some model guidance is more aggressive with the
increase dew points, especially Monday, so this is something to
keep an eye on.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Model guidance is in pretty good agreement that a cold front
will push into the region sometime on Wednesday, leading to the
next best chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. As of
now, the bulk of the convection looks to be from midday through
the afternoon, and while there remains some uncertainty with
regards to timing, the best instability seems to be setting up
across NE PA through portions of the Southern Tier of NY and
into the southern Catskills. This coincides with the warmest
temperatures Wednesday where highs will still be well into the
80s, while the Finger Lakes region through the Mohawk Valley
cool back off into the mid and upper 70s. If everything can come
together, some locally strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out for the afternoon and early evening. High temperatures
are expected to fall back into the 60s for the second half of
the week behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions will be VFR through the afternoon and early evening.
Showers will move into the region late in the day and with them,
ceilings will begin to fall over the Central NY terminals. SYR
and RME will have the best chance for showers while all other
terminals, including AVP, may see a passing shower after 22z.
MVFR to Fuel Alt restrictions are expected at RME, SYR, ITH, and
BGM overnight. Following the rain, fog will also be possible at
SYR and RME. Model soundings would also hint at the possibility
of fog at ELM but that will likely depend on if rain does fall
there. Given that most guidance do not favor fog at ELM,
confidence was too low to include at this time. All terminals
should return to VFR after 13z Sunday.

Winds are a bit breezy this afternoon with gusts around 20 kts
currently being observed over much of the region. Southwesterly
winds will remain breezy through the evening before calming some
overnight. Winds will then become west to northwesterly Sunday
morning with sustained speeds of less than 10 kts.

Outlook:

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR; morning valley fog
possible and afternoon isolated showers/thunderstorms - both of
which could result in restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and
thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves into the area.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...BTL