862
FXUS63 KAPX 110403
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1203 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Continued early growing season frost/freeze concerns tonight
   and again Monday night/Tuesday morning.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday/Wednesday.

- Moderating temperatures for the latter half of the week...
  maybe some precipitation chances for the weekend?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Blocked large scale pattern that has
plagued the Great Lakes for the entirety of May continues...with
eastern North America stuck on the backside of an expansive omega
block that spans the Atlantic basin.  Upper low spinning over James
Bay has several dynamic PV anomalies rotating around it...a couple
moving into the upper Lakes from the northwest per water vapor
imagery.  Deep layer northwesterly flow continues with low/mid level
cold air advection...-8C 850mb temperatures creeping into Lake
Superior.  Weakly cyclonic boundary layer flow across the Great
Lakes in the wake of a 994mb surface low over northern Quebec...
1025mb surface high straddles Saskatchewan/Manitoba with ridging
extending into the northern Plains.

But there is a (short) reprieve on the way from persistent long wave
troughing across the Great Lakes this week...with some bona fide
height rises/short wave ridging Monday.  This will be followed
quickly by a Pacific-origin short wave trough later Tuesday into
Wednesday; this trough axis is expected to shift toward the east
coast in the Thursday/Friday time frame and brings back some quasi-
zonal flow.  A lot more spread in the forecast pattern evolution
develops by next weekend...mostly tied to whether or not Pacific
short wave trough gets kicked east quickly...or drops into the
southwestern U.S. (probably the preferred idea at this point).

High pressure over the Canadian prairies forecast to build southeast
into the Midwest/Great Lakes Monday.  Approaching short wave trough
will drag an Alberta Clipper across Michigan Tuesday night/
Wednesday.  So one day of southerly boundary layer flow but not
enough for an appreciable air mass moderation before cool northwest
winds return Wednesday.  High pressure does return for Thursday...
and stronger return flow for Friday but the uncertainty in the upper
level pattern also has implications farther down with some
implication of a frontal passage (or at least a front in the
vicinity) next weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Continued early growing season frost/freeze concerns tonight and
again Monday night/Tuesday morning: Primary issue for tonight will
be one of cloud cover.  Even with the loss of diurnal Cu field
suspect there is still going to be some lingering clouds (and maybe
a few showers) across northern Lower into this evening.  Eventually
do think that clouds will thin sufficiently with diminishing winds
to allow temperatures to drop at/below freezing most areas.  Will
likely go with a Freeze Warning for all northern Lower zones...could
get cute and pop a few spots such as the Leelanau Peninsula into
just a Frost Advisory.  Anticipate areas across interior northern
Lower to drop into the 20s overnight.  A somewhat similar frost set
up for Monday night/Tuesday morning though the best cooling will be
during the first half of the night with winds and clouds increasing
late.

Precipitation chances return Tuesday/Wednesday: Clipper system
arrives across the upper Lakes Tuesday which is expected to push a
widespread band of rain across the forecast area.  Strong warm
advection/isentropic ascent on the front side of this system aided
by some low/mid level frontogenesis acting upon an axis of higher
precipitable water (up to 1 inch) and theta-e.  Rain amounts 0.25 to
0.50 inch expected in general during the day Tuesday...perhaps some
thunder as well later Tuesday/Tuesday night along theta-e ridge.
Shower chances will linger Wednesday as deep layer moisture wraps
around the departing system and back across Michigan.

Moderating temperatures for the latter half of the week...maybe some
precipitation chances for the weekend?: Temperatures expected to
warm Thursday closer to near normal highs (63 to 67 degrees)...
probably a better chance of exceeding normals on Friday with some
stronger southerly flow (daytime highs have been below normal every
day this month save the 4th of May).  Could see highs return to the
70s across northern Lower on Saturday...but a lot of uncertainty at
that point.  That uncertainty is also going to result in a lot of
nuisance PoPs in the forecast from Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions and rain-free weather are anticipated across northern
Michigan through Monday evening. BKN/OVC mid cloud over northern
lower Michigan is expected to move east tonight, leaving clear skies
by early Monday morning. Weak/calm winds will increase out of the
northwest this morning into the afternoon. Sustained winds around 10
kts are expected for most areas with gusts to around 15 kts at times
through the early evening hours.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-099.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ098.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...DJC