479
FXAK69 PAFG 161150
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 AM AKDT Sat May 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Spring-time is here for areas south of the Brooks Range as the
snow continues to melt, river breakup progresses further
downstream, and temperatures remain steadily in the 50s and 60s
through the weekend. The North Slope, however, is expected to
continue to see temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
As a low approaches from the Bering Sea, it will bring robust
moisture resulting in scattered precipitation for the West Coast
and Western Interior this weekend and isolated showers for the
Interior. Gusty southerly winds are expected to pick up today
through the Alaska Range passes and are expected to persist
through the weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warming conditions expected through this weekend with highs in
  the upper 50s to lower 60s with southerly flow over the Alaska
  Range and clearer skies possible.

- Gusty winds are possible for the Alaska Range passes beginning
  Saturday morning and last through the weekend. Wind gusts as
  high as 60 mph are possible, especially Sunday morning.

- Isolated showers associated with shortwave energy will be moving
  northward near the Al-Can border. There is a slight, nonzero
  percent chance that this energy may produce an isolated
  thunderstorm for the southeastern Interior near Eagle.

- Areas north of the Alaska Range are currently quite dry. Any
  showers that will occur within the next few days are likely to
  be isolated due to drier air in the lower levels.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warming temperatures are expected the next few days, with highs
  rising into the 50s across the Western Interior and Seward
  Peninsula and 40s across the YK Delta.

- Generally dry conditions are expected for the next few days with
  only scattered showers possible for portions of the YK Delta and
  Seward Peninsula. Chances for precipitation will be more likely
  on Saturday for the YK Delta.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- High temperatures on the North Slope will range from the mid 20s
  to the lower 30s through the weekend, potentially reaching
  around 40 in the Southwestern Brooks Range.

- Mainly dry conditions expected to prevail across the region for
  the next several days.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A weak, upper-level low will continue to move northwestward over
the Yukon Flats and towards the western Brooks Range today,
bringing minimal impacts to the Interior besides the possibility
of an isolated shower. This energy will continue to travel
northwestward and eventually combine with the trough in the
Bering Sea. South of this low is an area of weak shortwave energy
that will be associated with isolated showers and a very slight
chance of thunderstorms, specifically in the southeast Interior
near Eagle.

A Bering Sea low will approach the YK Delta, but not quite make
landfall. This low will draw additional moisture northward,
bringing scattered showers for the YK Delta and Seward Peninsula
beginning this weekend. There is a very slight, nonzero percent
chance of a thunderstorm with these showers. Accompanying these
showers will be gusty easterly/southerly winds for the YK Delta
and Western Interior. These winds will generally be strongest in
the afternoon and evenings and stronger around thunderstorms if
they form. Areas north of the Alaska Range currently have a large
dewpoint depression, meaning any showers that fall will have to
rise the dew point, likely resulting in the showers being
isolated.

Due to this low remaining in the Bering Sea throughout the
weekend and a Northeastern Arctic High, a pressure gradient will
form over the state, especially over the Alaska Range. Upwards of
6 mb of a pressure gradient and southerly flow through the Alaska
Range will create gusty winds this weekend, beginning Saturday
morning with the strongest wind gusts as high as 60 mph possible
Sunday morning in Isabel Pass and 50 mph in Delta Junction. Wind
Advisories have been issued for both areas. As a result of these
strong winds and dry conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for Delta Junction throughout this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Broad upper level troughing over Western Alaska coupled with a
ridge of high pressure centered over the NE Pacific into NW Canada
will continue to support southerly flow into Northern Alaska,
aiding in keeping warm and mostly dry conditions around this
weekend. A series of shortwaves working around a low in the Bering
Sea will be the main driver of moisture transport into the
Interior this weekend, as a weaker upper level low continues to
traverse northwest through the Interior towards the North Slope,
gradually being incorporated into the Bering Sea low. As that low
in the Bering shifts NE this weekend, this will help to develop a
stronger pressure gradient with high pressure in Canada and allow
for winds to shift from a more northerly component to carrying a
southerly and easterly direction this weekend. Precipitation
chances with this system will remain isolated aside from the Yukon
Delta where more scattered chances are expected, leaving Northern
Alaska mostly dry heading into early next week aside from some
isolated showers at times.

The largest impact from this setup will be strong winds through the
Alaska Range passes, particularly Isabel Pass and up towards Delta
Junction. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Delta Junction for
Saturday and Sunday for wind gusts up to 50 mph and RHs in the low
20s. Winds will strengthen slightly in the rest of the Interior,
predominantly easterly with strongest gusts in the evening.
Temperatures will rise into in the mid 60s for most spots in the
Interior and we may even see reach towards 70 in the Yukon Flats
down to Eagle on Sunday. Minimum relative humidities are expected
to be in the 20-30% range each afternoon this weekend, with
localized teens in Interior Valleys and the Yukon Flats.
Conditions will fair slightly better in the Western Interior where
moisture advection is higher and chances for showers are more
likely. Thunderstorms are not expected this weekend, except along
the AlCan border in the higher terrain around Fortymile Country
on Saturday.

Looking into the extended, models are showing increased
confidence on another low pressure system working through the
Aleutians into the Bering Sea for Thursday and Friday as the
initial low in the Bering Sea this weekend into early next week
gradually weakens and dissipates. This will continue to reinforce
and support daily isolated to scattered precipitation chances
across Northern Alaska in addition to increased winds through
Alaska Range Passes and at Delta Junction through Tuesday night
and again picking up on Thursday. Precipitation amounts overall
through the extended forecast continue to look light. Given the
time of year with temperatures across much of our region south of
the Brooks Range seeing highs hold steady well into the 50s and
60s, daily isolated thunderstorms will also be possible that will
peak in coverage each afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Yukon River:
The ice jam at the Yuki river, which had remained in place for
nearly two and a half days, finally released Thursday afternoon
sending a strong surge of ice and water downstream toward Galena.
The release triggered rapid downstream breakup with rapidly
changing conditions along the river. The initial surge carried
large intact sheets through Bishop Rock, which has reduced the
threat of an ice jam forming there. Late Thursday evening the main
ice run was seen moving steadily past Galena.

At Koyukuk, ice was moving steadily past the community while water
levels continued to rise and back up the Koyukuk River, however no
significant flood has been reported as of this morning.

Water levels are expected to continue rising in both Galena and
Koyukuk as large volumes of water previously locked up behind the
ice jam continues to move downstream. The River Watch team reports
that water levels behind the previous jam are comparable to the
2023 breakup season. Thus it is expected that minor flooding will
remain possible in Galena and Koyukuk in the coming days. Thus
flood watches will remain in effect for these areas.

Further upstream, high water continues to move downstream from
Stevens Village through Tanana.

Chena River:
The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with
higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than
normal, but likely remaining below action stage.

Additional Information:
Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday through next Friday.
With a persistent upper level low situated in the Bering Sea
midweek next week, southerly flow will continue across Northern
Alaska which will keep temperatures mild and daily precipitation
chances going. A broad ridge of high pressure centered in the NE
Pacific will continue to support to support a broad troughing
pattern in the Bering Sea. A series of shortwave troughs
propagating around the main low center mid to late week will aid
in this moisture transport from the West Coast and Yukon Delta
into the Interior and Brooks Range, all while the Arctic
Coast/Plains continue to remain dry outside of some very isolated
snow showers. Scattered showers will remain predominantly rain
with snow levels south of the North Slope generally remaining
between 2000 and 4000 feet. Given the time of year with
temperatures across much of our region south of the Brooks Range
seeing highs hold steady well into the 50s and 60s, daily isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible that will peak in coverage
each afternoon and evening.

With this overall setup, southerly winds will remain strong through
Alaska Range Passes and at Delta Junction for Tuesday and Tuesday
night before weakening on Wednesday, with peak gusts around 40 to 60
mph. Farther north, another strong easterly wind corridor will be
along the Arctic Coast Tuesday and Wednesday, with gusts to around
25 to 35 mph leading to localized blowing snow at times.

Looking ahead, models are showing increased confidence on another
low pressure system working through the Aleutians into the Bering
Sea for Thursday and Friday. This will continue to reinforce and
support daily precipitation chances across Northern Alaska in
addition to an increase in winds through Alaska Range Passes and
at Delta Junction on Thursday. Precipitation amounts overall
through the extended forecast continue to look light.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849.
     Flood Watch for AKZ818.
     Flood Watch for AKZ829.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Lewis
MacKay - Extended/Fire Weather