902
FXAK68 PAFC 110011
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

Steady precipitation is continuing over Southcentral Alaska due
to a low that pushed inland. Winds are turning more southwesterly,
allowing for moisture to flow into inland areas. Coastal areas of
Southcentral will continue seeing widespread rainfall as upslope
flow drives showers and steady rain. A band of moisture will
gradually move through inland areas through the day allowing for
continued unseasonably high rainfall for Anchorage, the Mat-Su,
and Western Kenai. Rainfall will diminish overnight for inland
areas as aloft winds turn easterly and allow for downslope drying.
Back to the present, a Knik wind is forming due to a coastal
ridge building in over the Chugach Mountains. The Copper River
wind is also increasing due to the pressure changes.

The coastal ridge will get stronger into Monday and combined with
lower pressure out west, will allow a Turnagain Arm wind to form
and bend into Southern Anchorage, including the airport. The other
aforementioned gap winds will be stronger on Monday. A large low
in the Bering will allow for shortwaves to drive into the Gulf of
Alaska. These waves will draw up moisture into Kodiak Island on
Monday, allowing for a large amount of precipitation to fall
through Tuesday. This moisture plume will rise into Coastal
Southcentral as well, allowing for moderate to heavy
precipitation, including Prince William Sound. Downsloping winds
will prevent inland areas from seeing much rainfall. Gap winds
around Kodiak Island will also increase in response to the
shortwaves.

By Tuesday, the inland gap winds will gradually diminish due to a
loosening of the pressure gradients. The southern coastline will
see gusty easterly winds as a stronger wave pushes onshore.
Precipitation along the coast will continue as well. Wednesday
will see a further weakening of winds. Scattered rain showers
including for inland areas will become prevalent due to increasing
instability from colder air moving in aloft.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

A large, negatively tilted upper level low continues to rotate
across the Southwest. Cold air aloft within the core of the low
will lead to convective showers, and even isolated graupel, in
the taller cumulus buildups. Persistent deformation precipitation
across the Southwest Interior will begin to show signs of
weakening tonight as the band itself shifts northward and a
southerly flow moves in. With this southerly flow comes a slight
warming trend, bringing temperatures closer to normal by midweek.

Meanwhile, a weak low, with primarily small craft levels winds and
moderate showers, will sweep eastward along and south of the
Aleutian Chain. By Monday, the two lows will begin to interact,
spiraling around and inwards towards each other in what`s called
the Fujiwhara Effect. This will briefly strengthen the eastern-
most front associated with the disorganized low leading to the
development of Kamishak gap winds Tuesday morning as easterly
winds funnel through the terrain and move along a corridor just
west of Iliamna. This strengthening will be brief however, as the
primary trend will lead to the lows becoming a large and
disorganized low by Tuesday afternoon, centered over the Bering
Sea/Pribilof Islands. Broadly, winds weaken as a core of small
craft level winds hang on west of a Pribilof Island-Unalaska line,
until the low center drops south of the AKPen.

AB/AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A low pressure system is expected to be centered across the
Alaska Peninsula early in the period, with moist southerly flow
over the northern Gulf of Alaska producing enhanced rainfall and
mountain snow across Southcentral Alaska`s southern coastal zones,
especially from the eastern Alaska and Kenai Peninsulas and
Prince William Sound through Thursday morning. This low will
gradually weaken, but a second system is forecast to track toward
the northern Gulf and Alaska Peninsula later in the week, bringing
another round of precipitation to the same coastal areas Friday
and Saturday, though the details of that follow-up system still
carry notable uncertainty. Over the Bering Sea and Aleutian
islands, the nearby low will keep marine conditions active, but
widespread heavy precipitation is not anticipated in the those
far-western waters.

Overall the pattern favors periods of unsettled weather across
Southcentral and Western Alaska, with the best chances for
significant coastal rain and favored mountain snow as these
systems move through over the weekend.

&&







.AVIATION...

PANC...Showers will move into the terminal this afternoon with
southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds gusting up to 25 kts bending
into the terminal. Winds will decrease later tonight before
increase again late Monday morning. VFR and MVFR ceilings expected
but could dip down to IFR before the front moves through this
evening.


&&


$$