317
FXUS65 KABQ 110011 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
611 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms producing occasional
  lightning, strong winds, and hail along central mountain chain
  and nearby highlands this afternoon and early evening.

- Difficult crosswinds in the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa
  Valleys late this afternoon and evening, especially for high
  profile vehicles, due to a gusty east canyon wind.

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive
  populations Tuesday and Wednesday across the lower elevations of
  central and eastern NM due to near-record heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

The backdoor cold front has stalled it`s westward progression
along the central mountain chain early this afternoon, but is
still forecast to result in gusty east winds into the Rio Grande
and Upper Tularosa Valleys later this afternoon and evening as it
surges west through the gaps and down the canyons. Upslope
forcing, combined with sufficient moisture and daytime heating, is
resulting in a slow-growing round of convection along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain early this afternoon. No
lightning yet, but all of the recent CAMs show this round
expanding in intensity through the afternoon hours and potentially
impacting Las Vegas, Clines Corner, Vaughn, Corona and Ruidoso.
The SPC has this area in a marginal risk area for severe storms
today, but the area with the highest probability for severe storms
is in/near the South Central Mountains where the 12Z NAM shows
0-6km bulk shear reaching 40kts, with muCAPE of close to 2,000J/kg
and LIs of -5C. All of the CAMs show convection diminishing
rapidly with the loss of daytime heating this evening. The gusty
east canyon wind is forecast to relax around midnight an skies are
forecast to clear overnight. Drying aloft is forecast tonight
behind a departing shortwave trough, but the near-surface layer
across southeast NM will be fairly saturated and fog will likely
develop along/east of a Roswell to Fort Sumner to Clovis line.
There is a moderate chance (40-50%) that a Dense Fog Advisory will
be required early Monday morning with the highest confidence area
around/near Clovis and Portales.

A 590dam 500mb high will develop over AZ Monday and shift east
into NM Monday night, bringing warmer temperatures. High
temperatures will generally be 5-10 degrees above average Monday,
except for a few degrees below average across southeast NM where
the impacts of today`s cold front will linger longer. A few
showers are likely by late afternoon Monday across the western and
southern high terrain, but will favor gusty winds over measurable
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

The 590dam 500mb will move directly over NM on Tuesday, bringing
the hottest day of the work-week with highs approaching daily
records at several locales. The heat will persist into Wednesday
as the upper level ridge is slow to shift east of the region. A
slight uptick in moisture in the mid levels of the atmosphere,
combined with daytime heating, will result in a round of late day
and mostly dry convection favoring central and western areas
Wednesday. Inverted-V sounding profiles will be favorable for
strong/erratic wind gusts late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening hours.

An upper level low is forecast to progress east across the
Intermountain West from Wednesday through Friday, potentially
steering stronger westerlies over NM and resulting in windy
conditions. However, there is notable spread among the 12Z model
solutions with the track and speed of this upper air feature
leading to lower forecast confidence beyond Wednesday. That said,
the modeling for the weekend shows dry/warm conditions persisting
with backing winds aloft ahead of a weak Pacific trough, potentially
pulling Gulf moisture into eastern NM late Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

East winds will continue to be gusty below canyons opening into
the central valley until mid-to-late evening. Areas of fog and
low clouds are forecast to produce IFR conditions late tonight
until mid morning Monday from Dunken and Roswell northeastward to
Clovis and Portales. Some patchy fog and low clouds will also be
possible along the east slopes of the central and south central
mountains including Moriarty, Estancia, and Ruidoso early Monday
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast on Monday.
Seasonably gusty southwest winds will develop mainly over
northeast and east- central areas during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

A warming and drying trend continues, except for behind a backdoor
cold front across eastern NM where higher humidity and cooler
temperatures prevail this afternoon. A few storms are likely
later this afternoon and evening along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain and adjacent eastern highlands, where
lightning ignitions can not be ruled-out. An upper high over AZ
will shift east over NM from Monday through Tuesday, bringing
hotter conditions, well above average temperatures and mostly
light winds. The ridge will shift east Wednesday and allow
moisture to trend up in the mid levels of the atmosphere,
supporting heating-triggered dry showers and storms that will
favor gusty/erratic winds over wetting rainfall. Winds will
increase Thu/Fri as an upper level trough/low moves east from the
Great Basin through the Rockies, bringing stronger westerly winds
aloft and a deepening lee side trough. Probabilities for critical
fire weather conditions are on the upswing for Thu/Fri as a
result, but are still relatively low given model spread with the
track and speed of the upper level trough/low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  85  48  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  34  80  39  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  39  79  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  37  84  43  88 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  44  81  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  41  84  46  88 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  42  83  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  80  52  84 /   0   5   5   5
Datil...........................  44  80  48  83 /   0  10   5   5
Reserve.........................  41  87  47  91 /   0   5   0  10
Glenwood........................  46  90  50  94 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  34  75  38  82 /   0   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  46  78  53  83 /   5   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  38  77  46  85 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  39  75  47  81 /   5   0   0   0
Red River.......................  34  66  41  72 /  10   0   5   0
Angel Fire......................  27  71  40  78 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  33  79  40  86 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  38  76  47  84 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  44  84  49  91 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  44  78  51  85 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  41  81  48  88 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  82  58  90 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  84  54  92 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  86  54  94 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  84  55  92 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  45  86  53  93 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  48  85  54  93 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  43  86  52  94 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  48  85  55  94 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  45  86  53  93 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  49  82  56  88 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  49  84  55  93 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  51  87  57  95 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  77  54  86 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  45  79  53  86 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  40  80  50  88 /  10   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  82  44  89 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  77  48  84 /  10   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  41  79  51  87 /  10   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  43  79  50  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  80  56  88 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  46  73  54  82 /  10  10   0  10
Capulin.........................  35  76  44  82 /   5   0   0   0
Raton...........................  36  81  43  87 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  37  83  43  89 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  39  78  47  86 /  20   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  41  80  54  91 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  39  78  47  88 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  43  86  52  96 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  41  84  49  93 /  20   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  42  86  56  98 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  43  82  53  97 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  43  83  52  98 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  42  83  51  97 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  49  82  54  97 /  20   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  79  51  92 /  20   0   0   0
Elk.............................  45  78  50  91 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44