Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
011 FXUS66 KSTO 130849 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 149 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm weather will result in areas of moderate heat risk continuing into the week ahead. A few isolated, late day showers or thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra through Tuesday. Otherwise, mostly dry and breezy conditions look to accompany this warm stretch as well. && .DISCUSSION(Through Wednesday)... Warm dry temperatures will continue today only slightly lower than yesterdays highs. Weak northerly flow over the parts of the central valley for Tuesday will help to start a brief warming trend for Tuesday and Wednesday with Wednesday expected to be the warmest day this week. The hottest temperatures could be near 100 degrees for the central and northern Sacramento valley with a 50 t0 80 percent probability of reaching 100 degrees. Flow through the Delta will help to keep temperatures cooler further south in the low to mid 90s. Not a lot of change is expected on Thursday with maybe slight cooling for areas with a Delta influence as the Delta breeze is expected to increase starting late Wednesday/Wednesday night. Moderate heat risk is expected Tuesday through Thursday for most of the central valley with the exception of areas with a Delta influence that will have a minor heat risk. The next couple of days there will be a slight chance of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms near the crest for the western slopes. The better chances look to be on the eastside of the crest where the greater moisture and instability are located. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)... EPAC upper ridge flattens Friday into Saturday as short wave troughs moves through the PacNW. At same time, cut off low west of CA approaches Saturday and pushes inland Sunday or Monday, models differ with progression rate and strength of features. Low could spark an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over higher elevations of Sierra Nevada Sunday and Monday. Cooling trend expected through the extended forecast period, but high temperatures remain above normal. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs exc isolated MVFR/IFR possible in -shra/-tsra over SierNev btwn 20z-04z. Sfc wind mainly below 12 kts except vcnty of Delta, SWly sfc wind up to 20 kts possible. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$