Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
675
FXZS60 NSTU 140137
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
237 PM SST Thu Feb 13 2025

.Short term...

The latest satellite imagery shows a trough remaining over the
territory to give passing showers over the region. Numerous
showers (70% chance) remain in the forecast through Friday. These
showers are expected to be in the passing form and flash flooding
is not anticipated. The north/northwesterly winds will also
remain around 15 mph, which is well below Wind Advisory levels.
For Friday night through Saturday night, the trough is forecast to
move south of the islands. This will reduce the risk of rainfall
to scattered passing showers (30% chance). A mix of sun and
clouds are expected throughout the day on Saturday with
north/northwesterly winds slightly reducing to 10 mph.

.Long term...

We are monitoring the potential for severe weather from Sunday
through the majority of the upcoming week. A South Pacific
Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is forecast to form over, or at least
near, American Samoa. The strong SPCZ has the potential to form
consistent, along with heavy rainfall at times, over the
territory. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase on Sunday
and reach up to 35 MPH, within Wind Advisory levels, by early to
mid week as the SPCZ gets stronger.

Tropical development tends to occur near the SPCZ as it provides
ingredients needed for tropical formation. There is no imminent
threat to American Samoa at this time, but will continue to
closely monitor the region.

Even a slight change in the position of the SPCZ may create major
changes in our forecast. We urge you to stay updated with the
latest forecast and alerts from our office.

We want to remind you that we are now in the middle of hurricane
season. This is a good time to review your hurricane preparedness
plans.

&&

.Marine...

A moderate north/northwesterly breeze continued over the American
Samoa coastal waters region today as a trough remained over the
region. The wind driven waves are creating choppy waters and have
built seas to around 6 to 7 feet, but remains below Small Craft
Advisory conditions. This moderate breeze is forecast to continue
through Friday. As the trough moves south on Friday night through
Saturday night, winds are to decrease to a north/northwesterly
gentle to moderate breeze with seas around 6 to 7 feet through
Sunday morning.

From Sunday night through the majority of next week, we are
monitoring the potential for adverse weather as a strong South
Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) that is expected to remain over,
or along, the coastal waters region. This may increase
northwesterly winds to near gale force and build seas up to 15
feet.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE

&&

$$

LaPlante