


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
675 FXZS60 NSTU 140137 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 237 PM SST Thu Feb 13 2025 .Short term... The latest satellite imagery shows a trough remaining over the territory to give passing showers over the region. Numerous showers (70% chance) remain in the forecast through Friday. These showers are expected to be in the passing form and flash flooding is not anticipated. The north/northwesterly winds will also remain around 15 mph, which is well below Wind Advisory levels. For Friday night through Saturday night, the trough is forecast to move south of the islands. This will reduce the risk of rainfall to scattered passing showers (30% chance). A mix of sun and clouds are expected throughout the day on Saturday with north/northwesterly winds slightly reducing to 10 mph. .Long term... We are monitoring the potential for severe weather from Sunday through the majority of the upcoming week. A South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is forecast to form over, or at least near, American Samoa. The strong SPCZ has the potential to form consistent, along with heavy rainfall at times, over the territory. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase on Sunday and reach up to 35 MPH, within Wind Advisory levels, by early to mid week as the SPCZ gets stronger. Tropical development tends to occur near the SPCZ as it provides ingredients needed for tropical formation. There is no imminent threat to American Samoa at this time, but will continue to closely monitor the region. Even a slight change in the position of the SPCZ may create major changes in our forecast. We urge you to stay updated with the latest forecast and alerts from our office. We want to remind you that we are now in the middle of hurricane season. This is a good time to review your hurricane preparedness plans. && .Marine... A moderate north/northwesterly breeze continued over the American Samoa coastal waters region today as a trough remained over the region. The wind driven waves are creating choppy waters and have built seas to around 6 to 7 feet, but remains below Small Craft Advisory conditions. This moderate breeze is forecast to continue through Friday. As the trough moves south on Friday night through Saturday night, winds are to decrease to a north/northwesterly gentle to moderate breeze with seas around 6 to 7 feet through Sunday morning. From Sunday night through the majority of next week, we are monitoring the potential for adverse weather as a strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) that is expected to remain over, or along, the coastal waters region. This may increase northwesterly winds to near gale force and build seas up to 15 feet. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ LaPlante