438
FXUS66 KOTX 160441
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As the ridge pattern begins to break down, generally calm and
benign conditions expected overnight. A cold front moves through
the region on Thursday, bringing widespread windy conditions
Thursday afternoon through Friday, mountain precipitation, and
cooler temperatures. Showery, breezy and cool weather looks to
continue into the weekend and even into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The region can expect similar conditions
from the previous nights. Increasing high and mid level clouds
expected as the ridge will begin to break down and an incoming
cold front approaches. Lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s.

Thursday will start quiet through the morning. Winds will be
slowly increasing through morning. Speeds expected to be in the
low teens with gust into the 20s. Cold front passage is expected
to be around in the mid afternoon. Winds will be strongest across
the Columbia Basin. Winds are expected to be in the upper teens
and low 20s. Gusts are reach into the 40s with localized speeds
into the low 50s possible. Ensemble probability of at least 40
MPH is at least 80%. A wind advisory has been issued for portions
of the Basin. Patchy blowing dust is possible in these areas.
Precip potential will be mainly over the mountain areas. Weak
thunderstorm is possible over extreme Northeast Washington and
North Idaho. It will be the warmest day through the weekend as
temperatures dip behind the cold front. Highs will be in the 70s
and low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

Friday is expected to similar to Thursday but lighter winds and
cooler temperatures. Winds will be sustained in the teens and
gusts into the 30s. Precip potential is still expected over the
mountain areas. Precip amounts will generally have little to no
accumulation. Highs will be in the 60s and low 70s. Lows will be
in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC

Saturday and Sunday:  If you want warm and dry weather for your
weekend weather, we hate to disappoint, as we arent looking at
that scenario. Rather we are looking at a very good chance of cool
and unsettled forecast with the polar jet positioned near the
OR/WA border on Saturday and perhaps even further south on Sunday.
The resultant air mass will be a typical springtime one with
unstable conditions, especially during the afternoon/evening
hours. 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop below -25c across
the northern third of eastern WA and N ID on Saturday and across
most of the region on Sunday. Meanwhile diurnal heating will
result in convective showers and possible thunderstorms. The best
chance of thunderstorms on Saturday will occur near the Canadian
Border north of a line from Republic to Sandpoint. On Sunday we
expect to see similar coverage with a slight southward expansion.
Meanwhile temperatures will drop considerably compared to recent
readings. On Saturday we expect to see highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday.
Sundays highs area are about 7 to 11 degrees cooler than normal
for this time of year. From a precipitation standpoint, totals
will generally be light with most locations seeing 0.10 or less
through the weekend. For Colville, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and
the Silver Valley totals will likely range from 0.15-0.25.
Somewhat breezy conditions are still expected on Saturday with
gusts of 30-35 mph possible across the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee
Area, and Waterville Plateau.

Monday through Wednesday: Ensemble agreement is very good that
we will remain on the cold side of the polar jet through this
period. This suggests the weather will remain cool and unsettled.
The trend has been toward a cooler and wetter scenario. For the 3
day period totals should exceed 0.10 over just about all
locations except the lower Columbia Basin. For Spokane/CdA totals
will range from 0.15-0.30. The heaviest amounts will occur over
NE WA into N ID with amounts ranging from 0.25-0.45. Thunderstorms
will also be possible each afternoon and evening, again with the
best chances near the Canadian border. High temperatures will
remain cooler than normal for this time of year with highs in the
60s to lower 70s. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the upcoming
period with bands mid to high level clouds streaming in from the
northwest. Winds will generally be 10 kts or less overnight
before an incoming front on Thursday. By 16z, gusty winds will
develop at most TAF sites with gusts to 20-25kts. These will
steadily increase by afternoon with gusts of 30-40kts. Local gusts
to 45kt are possible across the western Columbia Basin Thursday
afternoon. The gustiness will gradually decrease in the evening,
while a 15% to 30% chance of showers develops across northeast WA
and the ID Panhandle. /rfox.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions. There is a low chance of blowing dust to reduce
visibilities to under 6SM. There is also a low chance of light
showers leading to MVFR conditions at the TAF sites Thursday
evening. /rfox.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  76  44  64  41  66 /   0  10  10  20   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  51  73  44  60  40  64 /   0  10  10  50   0  10
Pullman        50  72  43  59  39  64 /   0   0  10  20   0   0
Lewiston       55  82  52  67  44  74 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       49  75  38  64  35  64 /  10  20  20  40   0  40
Sandpoint      50  71  44  58  38  62 /  10  40  40  70  10  30
Kellogg        53  70  45  54  41  61 /   0  10  40  70  10  20
Moses Lake     52  80  44  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  75  46  64  45  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  77  42  70  41  69 /   0  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake
     Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$