247
FXUS66 KSEW 140305
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
805 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

.UPDATE...A convergence zone lacked enough moisture to form
showers this evening, ending the last chance for precipitation for
the next few days. Low stratus will develop across portions of
the Puget Sound and along the coast early this morning, though
likely not as extensively as last night. Conditions will improve
as the sun comes up, leading to a mostly sunny and mild afternoon
across western Washington. No updates this evening.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Building high pressure will allow for temperatures to
rebound upward Tuesday and Wednesday. Weak systems will bring
temperatures back down by Friday into the weekend and may bring
with them chances for precipitation across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Upper level ridging will
nose into the region Tuesday and build through Wednesday allowing
for temperatures to rebound up both days. Slight cooling is
expected Thursday as a wave flattens the ridge. HeatRisk levels
will remain in the green and yellow categories through the period.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Forecast confidence wanes
somewhat Friday through the weekend as ensemble guidance continues
to struggle with the synoptic flow. The general consensus is for
additional waves to move through the area keeping temperatures
mild and precipitation chances in the forecast. That said, even at
the extremes of the ensemble envelope there doesn`t currently
appear to be a signal for any significant weather hazards during
the extended period. -Wolcott-

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly low end VFR with areas of MVFR behind the
passage of a cold front. Mid level ceilings are anticipated to
lower during the early morning hours of Tuesday with a low
probability of ceilings getting below MVFR for most inland areas.
Ceilings will improve throughout the late morning Tuesday as high
pressure builds into the region. Onshore flow will continue with
north/northwest flow with breezy winds at KHQM/KCLM/KBLI generally
lessening this evening to 8 kt or less overnight.

KSEA...Low end VFR with northeast surface winds 10-13 kt
decreasing into the evening to 8 kt or less. Ceilings hold a low
chance (20% to 30%) of lowering to MVFR 2000-2500 ft between
08z-15z Tues, so left as SCT for now. Ceilings will scatter out by
the late morning with dry conditions and north/northeast surface
winds 10 kt or less Tuesday.

AL

&&

.MARINE...Gusty SCA winds behind the passing of an upper level
trough in the Central/East Strait of Juan de Fuca and the
Admiralty Inlet will continue through the late evening. High
pressure will build off the coast during the week, with troughing
to the east. Strong northwesterlies will translate downward
towards the surface, so a couple periods of gusty winds are
possible in the outer coastal waters Tuesday evening into
Wednesday, as well as the central Strait of Juan de Fuca. A
stronger push looks probable Wednesday into Thursday for these
areas, and again Friday for the coast.

Seas will hold around 6 to 8 ft through Friday before increasing 8
to 12 ft from Friday into the weekend.

HPR/AL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Admiralty
     Inlet.

&&

$$